Forecast and Analysis of Coal Traffic in Daqin Railway Based on the SARIMA-Markov Model

Table 3

Statistical table of the SARIMA model’s predicted value and residual sequence (in million tons).

Time	ACTUAL	SARIMA F	Error
2010/6	35.5380	36.3685	−0.8305
2010/7	36.3230	36.6030	−0.2800
2010/8	36.2110	36.1051	0.1059
2010/9	32.5760	36.0014	−3.4254
2010/10	34.0840	32.7257	1.3583
2010/11	32.8800	35.9553	−3.0753
2010/12	33.4990	34.0188	−0.5198
2011/1	37.1090	32.5815	4.5275
2011/2	34.7510	36.8717	−2.1207
2011/3	39.1160	36.4210	2.6950
2011/4	28.8430	35.7270	−6.8840
2011/5	39.0050	34.0413	4.9637
2011/6	37.2460	38.0273	−0.7813
2011/7	38.1220	38.9142	−0.7922
2011/8	36.9390	36.7624	0.1766
2011/9	34.7450	35.8810	−1.1360
2011/10	37.9690	35.2646	2.7044
2011/11	36.8160	38.5455	−1.7295
2011/12	38.3310	37.8582	0.4728
2012/1	38.1740	39.5214	−1.3474
2012/2	34.8760	37.6725	−2.7965
2012/3	36.8430	37.0296	−0.1866
2012/4	31.4010	31.2652	0.1358
2012/5	39.1010	37.1483	1.9527
2012/6	34.6950	38.1825	−3.4875
2012/7	32.7310	35.4198	−2.6888
2012/8	31.2900	32.1657	−0.8757
2012/9	34.9530	29.1189	5.8341
2012/10	34.2850	35.6686	−1.3836
2012/11	38.1570	34.3911	3.7659
2012/12	39.3840	38.9422	0.4418
2013/1	38.8740	41.9307	−3.0567
2013/2	34.8820	36.7719	−1.8899
2013/3	38.1690	37.8120	0.3570
2013/4	33.1170	32.6547	0.4623
2013/5	37.7950	39.3172	−1.5222
2013/6	37.0570	35.7993	1.2577
2013/7	36.6493	37.0051	−0.3558
2013/8	37.7550	36.3293	1.4257
2013/9	38.0900	36.7567	1.3333
2013/10	35.3830	39.4495	−4.0665
2013/11	38.2820	36.5611	1.7209
2013/12	39.1930	39.4069	−0.2139
2014/1	39.7410	40.0323	−0.2913
2014/2	34.0330	36.6904	−2.6574
2014/3	39.3990	37.0087	2.3903
2014/4	32.1220	33.8711	−1.7491
2014/5	40.6070	38.3192	2.2878
2014/6	38.9360	38.3357	0.6003
2014/7	38.9250	39.6389	−0.7139
2014/8	38.1540	38.4263	−0.2723
2014/9	37.6650	38.3145	−0.6495
2014/10	34.5620	37.6351	−3.0731
2014/11	37.5350	36.0587	1.4763
2014/12	38.5080	38.1776	0.3304
2015/1	38.1860	39.0928	−0.9068