Research Article

Mass Rapid Transit Ridership Forecast Based on Direct Ridership Models: A Case Study in Wuhan, China

Table 1

Summary of literature on DRMs.

AuthorsModelsSoftwarePros and cons

Traditional econometric models
Kuby et al. (2004) [14]OLS/heteroskedasticity consistent covariances method (HCCM)LIMDEPHCCM assumes that the residual error is irrelevant; however, this assumption is not universal
Cervero (2006) [13]OLSThe log-log form of OLS is applied to describe suitable relations based on the data; however, the multicollinearity is not delivered
Usvyat et al. (2009) [15]OLSGIS/Microsoft excelThe intercept is negative, which does not conform to the actual conditions; additionally, the issue of collinearity has not been addressed
Sohn and Shim (2010) [16]OLS/structural equation model (SEM))AMOSThe SEM method needs a large data sample for support; in addition, the selection of latent variables depends on technical and empirical knowledge
Zhao et al (2013) [17]OLSSASThe signs of the four variable coefficients in the final DRM are negative and incorrect, which indicates that multicollinearity is not considered in the analysis
Ramos-Santiago and Brown (2016) [18]Negative binomial regression (NBR)StataThe application condition of NBR is that the mean value is equal to the variance; the data sample should be large
Chu (2004) [19]Poisson regression (PR)StataThe application condition of PR is that the predicted variance should be larger than the mean value
Chakour and Eluru (2016) [20]Ordered response probit (ORP) modelMatlabThe parameters should be calibrated by the method of composite marginal likelihood (CML) in this paper
Spatial econometric models
Cardozo et al. (2012) [10]GWRGISThe model could explain the diversity of results for spatial factors; however, it needs a large data sample
Pulugurtha and Agurla (2012) [21]Spatial proximity method (SPM)/spatial weighted method (SWM)SPSS/GISThe buffer of a stop has been divided into four bandwidths, and the best catchment can be identified based on SPM, but the weight function of SWM model (1/D2) is not continuous because of the defined set of bandwidths
Sung et al. (2014) [22]Spatial error model (SEM)/spatial lag model (SLM)GeoDaThis model could describe the relationships between the spatial factor and ridership; however, the definition of the spatial connection matrix is sensitive to the result
Jun et al. (2015) [23]Multinomial logit model (MNL)/OLS/MGWR (mixed GWR)GWR4The problem of autocorrelation has been addressed; however, the application of GWR needs a larger data sample for support
Ma et al. (2018) [24]Geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR)Explanatory variables are eliminated with the index of Pearson correlation lager than 0.6; however, the multicollinearity may exist among the variables and should be tested with variance inflation factor (VIF) index.
He et al. (2019) [25]GWRGWR4The explanatory variables are selected from 14 factors; the coefficients of population and official land use that resulted from GWR have negative sign in some areas around stations
Zhu et al. (2019) [26]Bayesian negative binomial regression model/GWRSPSS/GISStation ridership determinants are obtained from the method of Bayesian negative binomial regression; the multicollinearity could be addressed as well
Tang et al. (2019) [27]GWR/generalized linear model (GLM)The multicollinearity is tested with a Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) greater than 0.7 and a VIF greater than 7.5