A Hybrid LSTM-Based Ensemble Learning Approach for China Coastal Bulk Coal Freight Index Prediction
Table 2
Impact factors description and the corresponding Pearson coefficient values.
Variable category
Variable description
Feature number
Pearson coefficient values
Domestic and overseas thermal coal spot rates
Qinhuangdao Port-Q5500 Index-FOB (a spot price is an offer to complete a commodity transaction immediately, while a futures contract locks in a price for future delivery. It leaves its point of origin)
0.550
Qinhuangdao Port-Q5000 Index-FOB
0.575
Qinhuangdao Port-Q5500K Index-FOB
0.512
Qinhuangdao Port-Q5000K Index-FOB
0.530
Jintang Port-Q5500 Index-FOB
0.554
Jintang Port-Q5000 Index-FOB
0.571
Guangzhou Port-Q5500 Index (Australian Coal)-EXT (EX-tank (EXT) refers to the price of coal shipped from the warehouse, including the price before the coal is put into the warehouse and the warehouse usage fee)
0.545
Guangzhou Port-Q5500 Index (Indian Coal)-EXT
0.571
Coal inventories
Qinhuangdao Port
0.007
Caofeidian Port
−0.157
Guangzhou Port
−0.021
Tianjin Port
−0.295
Jintang Port
−0.197
Fuel oil prices
Fuel Oil 180 Singapore-FOB
0.202
Fuel Oil 380 Singapore-FOB
0.205
China fuel oil futures closing price (a closing price is the final price at which it trades during regular market hours on any given day) (continuous contract (a continuous contract is a reinsurance contract that does not have a fixed contract end date, which will continue to be renewed and be in effect until one of the parties in the contract terminates it. Continuous contracts are different from standard reinsurance contracts in that they do not provide coverage for only a fixed period of time))
0.265
China fuel oil futures closing price (active contract (an active contract means that this future contract can be traded for a specific amount of time))
0.272
China fuel oil futures settlement price (the settlement price is the average price at which a contract trades, calculated at both the open and close of each trading day) (continuous contract)
0.266
China fuel oil futures settlement price (active contract)
0.273
Crude oil prices
Brent crude oil spot price
0.152
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot price
