Table of Contents
Journal of Climatology
Volume 2013 (2013), Article ID 787250, 18 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/787250
Research Article

Species Favourability Shift in Europe due to Climate Change: A Case Study for Fagus sylvatica L. and Picea abies (L.) Karst. Based on an Ensemble of Climate Models

1Bavarian State Institute of Forestry (LWF), Department Soil and Climate, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 1, 85354 Freising, Germany
2Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Zentrum für Material- und Küstenforschung GmbH, Climate Service Center (CSC), Chilehaus, Fischertwiete 1, 20095 Hamburg, Germany

Received 26 June 2013; Accepted 20 October 2013

Academic Editors: A. V. Eliseev, T. G. Huntington, and A. Rutgersson

Copyright © 2013 Wolfgang Falk and Nils Hempelmann. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

Climate is the main environmental driver determining the spatial distribution of most tree species at the continental scale. We investigated the distribution change of European beech and Norway spruce due to climate change. We applied a species distribution model (SDM), driven by an ensemble of 21 regional climate models in order to study the shift of the favourability distribution of these species. SDMs were parameterized for 1971–2000, as well as 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 using the SRES scenario A1B and three physiological meaningful climate variables. Growing degree sum and precipitation sum were calculated for the growing season on a basis of daily data. Results show a general north-eastern and altitudinal shift in climatological favourability for both species, although the shift is more marked for spruce. The gain of new favourable sites in the north or in the Alps is stronger for beech compared to spruce. Uncertainty is expressed as the variance of the averaged maps and with a density function. Uncertainty in species distribution increases over time. This study demonstrates the importance of data ensembles and shows how to deal with different outcomes in order to improve impact studies by showing uncertainty of the resulting maps.