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Journal of Diabetes Research
Volume 2016 (2016), Article ID 9361958, 6 pages
Research Article

Delay in the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis Crossover Point as a Risk Factor for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

1Servicio de Medicina Interna, Hospital Universitario de Mostoles, Rio Jucar s/n, Mostoles, 28935 Madrid, Spain
2European University of Madrid, Villaviciosa de Odón, Spain

Received 3 February 2016; Revised 11 April 2016; Accepted 27 April 2016

Academic Editor: Janet H. Southerland

Copyright © 2016 Manuel Varela et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) measures the complexity of a glucose time series obtained by means of a Continuous Glucose Monitoring System (CGMS) and has proven to be a sensitive marker of glucoregulatory dysfunction. Furthermore, some authors have observed a crossover point in the DFA, signalling a change of dynamics, arguably dependent on the beta-insular function. We investigate whether the characteristics of this crossover point have any influence on the risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). To this end we recruited 206 patients at increased risk of T2DM (because of obesity, essential hypertension, or a first-degree relative with T2DM). A CGMS time series was obtained, from which the DFA and the crossover point were calculated. Patients were then followed up every 6 months for a mean of 17.5 months, controlling for the appearance of T2DM diagnostic criteria. The time to crossover point was a significant predictor risk of developing T2DM, even after adjusting for other variables. The angle of the crossover was not predictive by itself but became significantly protective when the model also considered the crossover point. In summary, both a delay and a blunting of the crossover point predict the development of T2DM.