The All-Cause Mortality and a Screening Tool to Determine High-Risk Patients among Prevalent Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients
Table 4
The examples in calculating the probability of event based on the coefficients in the model 3.
Factors
Category
Coefficient
Coeff. Rev.
Patient 1
Patient 2
Patient 3
Patient 4
Patient 5
M1
M2
M1
M2
M1
M2
M1
M2
M1
M2
Age group
<40
ref gp
ref gp
40 to <65
1.317
1.300
x
x
x
x
≥ 65
2.415
2.400
x
x
x
x
x
x
Duration of disease
<5
ref gp
ref gp
5–10
0.155
0.200
x
x
>10
0.288
0.300
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
BMI
Underweight
1.307
1.300
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
Normal
0.377
0.400
Overweight
−0.019
−0.020
Obese
ref gp
ref gp
Retinopathy
Yes
0.274
0.300
x
x
x
x
Ishaemic heart disease
Yes
0.424
0.400
x
x
x
x
Cerebrovascular
Yes
0.783
0.800
x
x
Nephropathy
Yes
0.433
0.400
x
x
Foot problem
Yes
0.504
0.500
Constant
−4.084
−4.100
Calculate probability of event
Step 1. Calculate z-score
−0.073
−0.100
0.201
0.200
0.351
0.3
−1.030
−1.000
0.469
0.400
Step 2. Calculate exponential of z
0.929
0.905
1.222
1.221
1.420
1.350
0.357
0.368
1.598
1.492
Step 3. Calculate 1 + exponential of z
1.929
1.905
2.222
2.221
2.420
2.350
1.357
1.368
2.598
2.492
Step 4. Calculate probability of event
0.482
0.475
0.550
0.550
0.587
0.574
0.263
0.269
0.615
0.599
Coeff. Rev. refers to revised coefficient. M1 refers to model 1 where the probability of event was calculated based on exact coefficients. M2 refers to model 2 where the probability of event was calculated based on revised coefficients. ref gp refers to reference group.
