Review Article

Solar Photovoltaic Power Forecasting

Table 2

Current literature review in the PV power forecasting including the references, methods, time and spatial horizons, and results.

ReferencesMethodsTHInputsBest results

[18]Persistence, MPL, CNN, LSTM, and LSTM full.VSTPast PV power data and sky images.RMSE = 15.3%.

[19]The component methods including SARIMA, ETS, MLP, STL, TBATS, theta, NWP, MOS, temporal reconciliation (TmpRec), and geographical reconciliation (GeoRec). The combined forecasts including simple averaging, Var, ordinary least squares (OLS), least absolute deviation (LAD), constrained least squares (CLS), subset, AIC, lasso, and Oracle.STPast PV power.NRMSE = 15.4%.

[20]Probabilistic forecast based on the Gaussian process (GP) and the reference model based on ARIMA.0–6 hHousehold electricity consumption and past PV power.NRMSE = 8.2%
PINAW: 12.4%
PICP: 87.57%.

[21]GA + PSO + ANFIS compared to BPNN, and LRM.STPast PV power data and NWP data.NRMSE = 5.48%.

[22]WT, FNN, ELM, and cascade forward BPNN (NewCF) learned with different learning methods.STPast PV power, air temperature, wind speed, and humidity.MAPE = 3.10%.

[23]RF, fuzzy C-means (FCM), sparse Gaussian process (SPGP), and improved grey wolf optimizer (IMGWO).STPast PV power data.NRMSE = 6.5%.

[24]Models for clear sky weather: SARIMA, W-SARIMA, RVFL, W-RVFL, and SVR.
Models for cloudy/rainy weather: SARIMA-RVFL hybrid model.
VSTPV power data.RMSE = 9.34%.

[25]SVM, MLP, multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), and SVM-MLP-MARS.STPast PV power, wind speed, wind direction, temperature, relative humidity, GHI, and DHI.RMSE = 21.41%.

[26]CNNVSTPV power and sky images.RMSE = 2.5 kW.

[27]CNN, LSTM, and the hybrid model of CNN-LSTM.STWind speed, temperature, relative humidity, GHI, DHI, wind direction, current phase average, and active power.RMSE = 0.9 kW.

[7]Uncertain basis function method (UBF): UBU (uniform), UBG (Gaussian), and UBP (Laplace).
Stochastic state-space method (STS): prediction minimization error and expectation maximization and Kalman filter (EM-KF).
VSTPast PV power and solar irradiance.NRMSE = 8.11%
MAPE = 5.81 %.

[28]CNN with the rectified linear activation function (RLAF), the multiheaded CNN of 4 CNNs, the CNN-LSTM, and the ARMA.STPV power, irradiation, module and ambient temperatures, and wind speed.RMSE = 0.046 kW.

[29]CNN, residual network (RN), dense convolutional network (DCNN), theta, ETS, SVR, RFR, physical, MPL, and the hybrid of RN-DCNN.STPast PV power and NWP data.MSE = 0.152 kW.

[30]Hoff, Perez, Lave, variability reduction index (VRI)—gene expression programming (GEP) and WT-ANFIS models.0–6 hIrradiance data and weather conditions.RMSE = 9.52 %.

[31]Similarity algorithm (SA), KNN, NARX, and smart persistence models (SPMs).STPast PV power, air and module temperatures, wind speed, wind direction, humidity, and solar irradiance.RMSE = 2.3%
RMSE = 0%
RMSE = 5.9%.