“Minus 1” and Energy Costs Constants: Sectorial Implications

Table 2

Impacts of economy-wide and sector-specific energy costs shares’ evolution on economic growth parameters.

Sector	Indicator		1% point increment in ECS		Annual output growth needed to compensate for 1% point increment in ECS in 3 years	Gap between maximum and minimum ECSs in 1995-2011
			ECS below the threshold	ECS beyond the threshold
1	2		3	4	5	6
Manufacturing	Δ manufacturing value added growth rate lagged one year		-1.8	-7.7
	Δ share of value added in gross output change		-2.7… -5%		2.5…10%	0.7…2,9%
Services	Δ share of value added in gross output change		0…-6.8%		0…4.9%	0…2.5%
Commercial transport	Δ share of value added in gross output change		-0.2…-4.6%		0.2…4.5%	1.2…13%
Private transport	Δ share of income spent on new motor vehicles		-0.3%	-0.8%
Residential	Δ share of income spent on furnishings and durable household equipment		-0.26…; -0.54%	-1%
Economy-wide	Δ GDP growth rate lagged one year	This study	-0.4…; -1.1%	-1.5…; -4.6%
		Bashmakov [1, 4] for the US	-0.01%	-1%
		Fizaine and Court [31] for the US	-0.48…-0.52%
		King [32] average for 44 countries	-0.37…-0.45%
	Δ share of GDP in gross output		-0.4…-7.3		0.15…8.5%	0.9…2.6%

in column 5 could also be interpreted as annual average value added share or profit margin ratio loss for the most energy intense facilities associated with additional 1 percent point of ECS.
based on WIOD1 data for 1995-2011.
based on estimate for industry assuming share of industry in GDP between 20 and 60%.
Sources: author’s calculations, Bashmakov [1, 4], Fizaine and Court [31], and King [32].