Local and Regional PV Power Variability in the Northeastern U.S.: Implications for Simplified Utility Flicker Screening Analyses

<div>Normalized solar irradiance data, <span class="nowrap"><svg height="12.5977pt" id="M21" style="vertical-align:-3.30937pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 60.0922 12.5977" width="60.0922pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M244 607C244 633 228 655 200 655C166 655 146 618 146 594C146 564 166 546 191 546C221 546 244 574 244 607ZM222 91L209 114C184 94 148 66 133 66C127 66 124 73 130 96L201 370C213 416 211 448 191 448C162 448 88 407 29 352L42 328C73 354 104 371 114 371C120 371 119 365 115 345L53 92C32 5 45 -12 68 -12C103 -12 186 50 222 91Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,3.484,3.132)"><path d="M504 89L488 119C453 85 428 69 416 69C408 69 405 75 412 102L462 304C492 438 460 451 436 451S388 441 356 423C311 397 229 336 170 256H168L189 340C208 418 200 451 177 451C144 451 82 413 24 352L40 322C65 345 98 369 108 369C114 369 119 363 112 335L28 -3L36 -12C54 -3 83 4 112 10C125 73 138 122 153 174C205 258 328 382 376 382C395 382 399 369 384 305L330 93C312 25 323 -12 351 -12C378 -12 439 21 504 89Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,12.291,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,23.554,0)"><path d="M405 650H141L135 622C222 616 230 610 215 535L133 116C118 41 113 33 29 28L23 0H289L295 28C209 33 205 40 219 116L298 535C312 609 317 616 399 622L405 650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,28.272,3.132)"><path d="M504 89L488 119C453 85 428 69 416 69C408 69 405 75 412 102L462 304C492 438 460 451 436 451S388 441 356 423C311 397 229 336 170 256H168L189 340C208 418 200 451 177 451C144 451 82 413 24 352L40 322C65 345 98 369 108 369C114 369 119 363 112 335L28 -3L36 -12C54 -3 83 4 112 10C125 73 138 122 153 174C205 258 328 382 376 382C395 382 399 369 384 305L330 93C312 25 323 -12 351 -12C378 -12 439 21 504 89Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,33.447,0)"><path d="M368 703H309L44 -163H104L368 703Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,38.808,0)"><path d="M405 650H141L135 622C222 616 230 610 215 535L133 116C118 41 113 33 29 28L23 0H289L295 28C209 33 205 40 219 116L298 535C312 609 317 616 399 622L405 650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,43.527,3.132)"><path d="M409 504C401 567 396 607 392 642C354 654 312 665 266 665C137 665 60 583 60 487C60 374 161 325 225 290C300 250 355 215 355 141C355 68 311 21 235 21C131 21 86 122 71 183L41 176C48 128 61 42 68 21C78 16 93 8 118 0C142 -7 175 -15 216 -15C349 -15 438 69 438 174C438 287 344 333 265 374C186 414 138 449 138 522C138 576 172 631 249 631C336 631 363 562 380 499L409 504Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,47.749,3.132)"><path d="M592 498C586 556 582 629 581 675H560C545 656 537 650 510 650H115C87 650 74 652 60 675H40C38 620 33 555 28 495H57C69 539 77 568 89 585C102 607 122 616 205 616H267V123C267 44 259 34 168 28V0H454V28C360 34 352 44 352 123V616H422C498 616 514 608 531 584C542 568 552 543 562 495L592 498Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,53.291,3.132)"><path d="M614 175C564 76 510 21 408 21C256 21 146 149 146 336C146 488 235 629 402 629C510 629 570 586 597 480L626 488C620 541 614 582 606 638C578 643 510 665 429 665C206 665 44 527 44 316C44 157 153 -15 402 -15C474 -15 558 5 586 11C604 45 629 119 643 165L614 175Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> from the TGHI dataset over the 10 minutes per year with the highest RMS ramp rates. As one would expect for ramps caused by passing clouds, the changes in solar output can vary significantly from year to year. (a) 2016 (the year with the highest overall variability in the data), (b) 2014, (c) 2013, (d) 2012, (e) 2011, and (f) 2009. The three years not shown had similar waveforms to one of the above with 2008 comparable in shape to 2016, and both 2014 and 2015 are similar to 2009.</div>

Journal of Energy

fig6

Figure 6

Figure 6: Local and Regional PV Power Variability in the Northeastern U.S.: Implications for Simplified Utility Flicker Screening Analyses 