Local and Regional PV Power Variability in the Northeastern U.S.: Implications for Simplified Utility Flicker Screening Analyses

<div>Smoothing of solar output, <span class="nowrap"><svg height="12.7178pt" id="M45" style="vertical-align:-3.42947pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 55.5004 12.7178" width="55.5004pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M570 304C570 398 525 448 414 448C385 448 343 445 312 434L329 511L321 518C297 504 262 482 244 460L233 411C195 397 159 381 128 358L135 332C160 347 189 360 224 373L111 -147C97 -210 84 -218 17 -231L13 -257L254 -247L259 -218L233 -216C183 -212 177 -202 189 -142L218 -1C238 -10 266 -12 283 -12C351 3 429 48 483 105C543 168 570 242 570 304ZM482 289C482 161 380 33 304 33C278 33 248 51 233 69L303 396C326 400 352 403 369 403C428 403 482 380 482 289Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,7.384,3.132)"><path d="M504 89L488 119C453 85 428 69 416 69C408 69 405 75 412 102L462 304C492 438 460 451 436 451S388 441 356 423C311 397 229 336 170 256H168L189 340C208 418 200 451 177 451C144 451 82 413 24 352L40 322C65 345 98 369 108 369C114 369 119 363 112 335L28 -3L36 -12C54 -3 83 4 112 10C125 73 138 122 153 174C205 258 328 382 376 382C395 382 399 369 384 305L330 93C312 25 323 -12 351 -12C378 -12 439 21 504 89Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,16.191,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,27.454,0)"><path d="M600 480C600 590 528 650 384 650H143L137 622C222 614 225 607 210 531L130 127C113 41 106 36 23 28L17 0H294L300 28C204 36 195 42 212 127L243 284L314 263C327 263 339 263 352 264C465 271 600 337 600 480ZM508 481C508 351 402 304 329 304C289 304 265 311 250 317L295 559C302 594 310 606 323 611C335 616 350 619 367 619C455 619 508 573 508 481Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,34.11,3.132)"><path d="M504 89L488 119C453 85 428 69 416 69C408 69 405 75 412 102L462 304C492 438 460 451 436 451S388 441 356 423C311 397 229 336 170 256H168L189 340C208 418 200 451 177 451C144 451 82 413 24 352L40 322C65 345 98 369 108 369C114 369 119 363 112 335L28 -3L36 -12C54 -3 83 4 112 10C125 73 138 122 153 174C205 258 328 382 376 382C395 382 399 369 384 305L330 93C312 25 323 -12 351 -12C378 -12 439 21 504 89Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,39.284,0)"><path d="M368 703H309L44 -163H104L368 703Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,44.645,0)"><path d="M600 480C600 590 528 650 384 650H143L137 622C222 614 225 607 210 531L130 127C113 41 106 36 23 28L17 0H294L300 28C204 36 195 42 212 127L243 284L314 263C327 263 339 263 352 264C465 271 600 337 600 480ZM508 481C508 351 402 304 329 304C289 304 265 311 250 317L295 559C302 594 310 606 323 611C335 616 350 619 367 619C455 619 508 573 508 481Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,51.301,3.132)"><path d="M357 391C357 416 325 451 270 451C241 451 179 431 146 400C109 365 97 334 97 307C97 248 143 213 196 180C250 146 261 123 261 101C261 75 237 40 190 40C153 40 110 72 86 109C81 116 68 119 55 112C37 102 24 87 24 66C24 30 85 -12 137 -12C229 -12 331 62 331 140C331 189 304 218 236 260C197 284 164 309 164 346C164 381 194 400 220 400C259 400 282 380 304 350C310 342 321 339 330 344C347 353 357 372 357 391Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> due to geographic dispersion of systems on days of high solar variability in spring/summer and fall/winter months: (a) normalized production of a single system (blue) and the average of 14 systems (gray) on July 26, 2016; (b) reduction in the variance of solar ramp rates, <span class="nowrap"><svg height="14.8173pt" id="M46" style="vertical-align:-5.52897pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 69.0832 14.8173" width="69.0832pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M548 455L523 469C505 448 490 439 461 439C416 439 374 447 316 447C144 447 23 310 23 161C23 47 89 -12 179 -12C312 -12 429 106 429 244C429 303 419 344 368 386L371 388C404 383 440 378 474 378C507 378 530 411 548 455ZM350 274C350 191 308 25 198 25C144 25 108 75 108 157C108 264 170 395 276 395C296 395 320 384 333 360C347 334 350 316 350 274Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.979,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,22.242,0)"><path d="M548 455L523 469C505 448 490 439 461 439C416 439 374 447 316 447C144 447 23 310 23 161C23 47 89 -12 179 -12C312 -12 429 106 429 244C429 303 419 344 368 386L371 388C404 383 440 378 474 378C507 378 530 411 548 455ZM350 274C350 191 308 25 198 25C144 25 108 75 108 157C108 264 170 395 276 395C296 395 320 384 333 360C347 334 350 316 350 274Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,29.002,3.132)"><path d="M433 39L423 65C413 59 399 54 387 54C370 54 352 69 352 114V299C352 352 342 392 307 422C285 440 255 449 225 449C168 437 102 399 75 379C56 365 44 353 44 339C44 315 69 296 87 296C101 296 111 303 116 319C124 349 133 371 145 385C156 397 171 404 190 404C241 404 275 364 275 291V274C253 256 180 229 120 209C65 190 39 159 39 110C39 47 88 -12 159 -12C189 -12 237 25 277 52C282 35 288 21 301 8C312 -3 333 -12 348 -12L433 39ZM275 84C256 65 221 48 195 48C164 48 124 73 124 124C124 161 146 180 185 198C206 208 254 229 275 240V84Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,32.832,3.132)"><path d="M478 437H300V411C357 404 363 393 347 345C325 280 293 190 258 107C229 178 188 284 163 354C147 397 149 405 203 411V437H-2V411C52 403 59 396 82 339C130 222 176 109 220 -11H248C304 138 356 261 390 336C417 395 425 404 478 411V437Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,37.046,3.132)"><path d="M463 437C426 431 375 425 327 422C297 440 264 449 231 449H230C153 449 51 396 51 283C51 215 94 168 139 149C123 129 91 103 51 88C50 78 53 60 62 46C75 25 100 2 136 -9C112 -28 73 -59 53 -79C38 -94 29 -113 29 -135C30 -192 91 -257 203 -257C336 -257 452 -160 452 -59C452 39 371 59 309 59C275 59 240 58 203 58C158 58 140 77 140 96C140 110 157 129 170 138C186 135 205 133 221 133C306 133 396 185 396 293C396 328 384 360 366 381L423 378C439 387 459 413 468 429L463 437ZM219 418C277 418 314 362 314 284C314 205 275 166 231 165C176 165 137 221 137 299C137 376 177 418 219 418ZM241 -11C285 -11 314 -14 339 -24C367 -36 384 -61 384 -95C384 -157 335 -206 240 -206C166 -206 108 -165 108 -110C108 -82 128 -54 154 -32C172 -17 195 -11 241 -11Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,41.849,0)"><path d="M368 703H309L44 -163H104L368 703Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,47.21,0)"><path d="M548 455L523 469C505 448 490 439 461 439C416 439 374 447 316 447C144 447 23 310 23 161C23 47 89 -12 179 -12C312 -12 429 106 429 244C429 303 419 344 368 386L371 388C404 383 440 378 474 378C507 378 530 411 548 455ZM350 274C350 191 308 25 198 25C144 25 108 75 108 157C108 264 170 395 276 395C296 395 320 384 333 360C347 334 350 316 350 274Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,53.97,3.132)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,58.402,3.132)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,60.559,3.132)"><path d="M870 650H622L613 619C694 615 708 606 708 559C708 531 702 477 686 396L636 136H633L281 650H127L120 619C180 616 198 611 212 592C227 572 232 558 220 503L166 254C148 169 139 131 126 89C112 43 85 35 33 32L24 0H280L286 32C208 37 189 44 189 93C189 124 198 179 212 250L267 526H271L622 -8H655L732 396C747 477 762 532 770 556C785 600 798 616 862 619L870 650Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> in spring/summer as a function of the number of systems over which averaging takes place; (c) normalized production of a single system and the average of 14 systems on November 4, 2016; (d) reduction in the variance of solar ramp rates in fall/winter as a function of the number of systems averaged over.</div>

Journal of Energy

fig9

Figure 9

Figure 9: Local and Regional PV Power Variability in the Northeastern U.S.: Implications for Simplified Utility Flicker Screening Analyses 