Malaria Risk Stratification and Modeling the Effect of Rainfall on Malaria Incidence in Eritrea

Table 4

Best-fitted seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model of malaria incidence and rainfall of the stratified clusters.

Cluster	SARIMA model	Model fit		Model diagnosis (Ljung-Box Q test)
		S.R^2	N.BIC	Value	Significance
High risk	ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (0, 0, 0)	0.731	10.806	14.218	0.652
Moderate risk	Simple seasonal	0.463	8.462	21.899	0.146
Low risk	Simple seasonal	0.534	6.787	21.029	0.177
Very low risk	Simple seasonal	0.507	3.377	15.833	0.465

S.R²: stationary R-squared (coefficient of determination); N.BIC: Normalized Bayesian Information Criteria.