Forecasting Maternal Complications Based on the Impact of Gross National Income Using Various Models for Rwanda

Table 1

Model parameters and the relationship between MMs and GNI.

Monthly mortality				Yearly mortality				Pearson correlation
Lags	ACF	PACF	Q-stat	P value	ACF	PACF	Q-stat	-value	MMs and GNI	P value
1	0.850	0.850	13.87	0.00	0.591	0.591	6.7129	0.010	−0.610	0.012
2	0.660	−0.22	22.84	0.00	0.268	−0.125	8.1908
3	0.460	−0.13	27.53	0.00	0.283	0.279	9.9636	0.019
4	0.266	−0.10	29.23	0.00	0.124	−0.263	10.335	0.035
Model information	Parameters	Estimates	SE					P value
DESM	Alpha (Level)	0.50	.019					.958
	Gamma	0.201	0.201					.962
	Beta	0.100
ARIMA (0 1 0)	drift	3.39	0.23					0.000
	alpha	1	0.00					0.003
Linear model	Intercept alpha	3.32	0.036					0.114
R-square (0.56)	alpha	0.011
Nonparameter test	Stat-value	Bera-Jarque	Test-value
Mann–Whitney U	46.500	Skewness	1.195
Wilcoxon W	101.500	Kurtosis	2.329
Z-test	−1.299	P value (2-tailed)	0.194

ACF: autocorrelation function, PACF: partial autocorrelation function, MM: maternal mortality, GNI: gross national income, SE : standard error, AIC: Akaike information criteria. P value < 0.01 significant level.