National Vulnerability to Pandemics: The Role of Macroenvironmental Factors in COVID-19 Evolution
Table 1
H2 subhypotheses and their results.
National factor
Hypothesis, number
Coefficient value
Finding
GDP per capita (PPP)
Negatively correlates with vulnerability, H2a
0.092
Supported at 10% significance level
Percent of population below poverty line
Positively correlates with vulnerability, H2b
0.028
Supported
Number of airports with paved runways
Positively correlates with vulnerability, H2c
0.251
Rejected
Literacy rate
Negatively correlates with vulnerability, H2d
0.363
Rejected
People using at least basic drinking water services (% of population)
Negatively correlates with vulnerability, H2e
0.496
Rejected
People using at least basic sanitation services (% of population)
Negatively correlates with vulnerability, H2f
0.138
Rejected
Health expenditure % GDP
Negatively correlates with vulnerability, H2g
0.221
Rejected
Health expenditure per capita (current US$)
Negatively correlates with vulnerability, H2h
0.417
Rejected
Cause of death, by communicable diseases and maternal, prenatal, and nutrition conditions (% of total)
Positively correlates with vulnerability, H2i
0.226
Rejected
Hospital beds (per 1,000 people)
Negatively correlates with vulnerability, H2j
0.033
Rejected (positive correlation was found)
Out-of-pocket healthcare expenditure per capita (current US$)
Positively correlates with vulnerability, H2k
0.435
Rejected
Physicians (per 1,000 people)
Positively correlates with vulnerability, H2l
0.277
Rejected
Mortality rate attributed to unsafe water, unsafe sanitation, and lack of hygiene (per 100,000 population)
Positively correlates with vulnerability, H2m
0.466
Rejected
Population ages 65 and above (% of total population)
Positively correlates with vulnerability, H2n
0.095
Supported at 10% significance level
Population growth (annual %)
Negatively correlates with vulnerability, H2o
0.069
Supported at 10% significance level
Universal healthcare (UHC) service coverage index
Negatively correlates with vulnerability, H2p
0.496
Rejected
Diabetes prevalence (% of population ages 20 to 79)
Positively correlates with vulnerability, H2q
0.201
Rejected
People practicing open defecation (% of population)
Positively correlates with vulnerability, H2r
0.209
Rejected
Geography: coastline in km
Positively correlates with vulnerability, H2s
0.358
Rejected
Urban population as % of total population
Positively correlates with vulnerability, H2t
0.296
Rejected
Population in major city in millions
Positively correlates with vulnerability, H2u
0.145
Rejected
Population density (people per sq. km of land area)
Positively correlates with vulnerability, H2v
0.162
Rejected
CO2 emissions (kg per 2011 PPP $ of GDP): carbon dioxide emissions are those stemming from the burning of fossil fuels and the manufacture of cement
Positively correlates with vulnerability, H2w
0.310
Rejected
PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (micrograms per cubic meter): population-weighted exposure to ambient PM2.5 pollution is defined as the average level of exposure of a nation’s population to concentrations of suspended particles
Positively correlates with vulnerability, H2x
0.422
Rejected
Electricity production from coal sources (% of total): the inputs used to generate electricity. Coal refers to all coal and brown coal
