Research Article

Construction of a Prediction Model for the Mortality of Elderly Patients with Diabetic Nephropathy

Table 2

Baseline data of the participants in the training set and the testing set.

VariableTotal (n = 511)Testing set (n = 153)Training set (n = 358)Statistical magnitudeP

Gender, n (%)χ 2 = 0.0120.911
 Male292 (57.14)88 (57.52)204 (56.98)
 Female219 (42.86)65 (42.48)154 (43.02)

Marital status, n (%)χ 2 = 5.1880.393
 Divorced34 (6.65)10 (6.54)24 (6.70)
 Married247 (48.34)73 (47.71)174 (48.60)
 Separated3 (0.59)0 (0.00)3 (0.84)
 Single85 (16.63)32 (20.92)53 (14.80)
 Unknown14 (2.74)4 (2.61)10 (2.79)
 Widowed128 (25.05)34 (22.22)94 (26.26)

Ethnicity, n (%)χ 2 = 3.4430.632
 Asian18 (3.52)3 (1.96)15 (4.19)
 Black93 (18.20)28 (18.30)65 (18.16)
 Hispanic or Latino12 (2.35)5 (3.27)7 (1.96)
 Others11 (2.15)2 (1.31)9 (2.51)
 Unknown43 (8.41)12 (7.84)31 (8.66)
 White334 (65.36)103 (67.32)231 (64.53)

LOS, M (Q1, Q3)2.60 (1.37, 4.79)2.93 (1.41, 5.02)2.41 (1.35, 4.38)Z = 1.1350.256
Age, M (Q1, Q3)74.39 (69.69, 80.12)73.98 (69.44, 79.66)74.60 (69.92, 80.30)Z = −0.9830.326
Respiratory rate, mean ± SD19.08 ± 5.7618.76 ± 6.0019.22 ± 5.66t = −0.840.404
Temperature, mean ± SD36.46 ± 0.9536.35 ± 0.9736.51 ± 0.94t = −1.740.083
Heart rate, mean ± SD82.59 ± 17.9982.61 ± 17.2982.58 ± 18.30t = 0.010.989
SBP, mean ± SD126.43 ± 28.02126.34 ± 29.08126.47 ± 27.60t = −0.050.962
DBP, mean ± SD58.35 ± 16.2557.85 ± 13.0058.56 ± 17.48t = −0.510.611
MAP, mean ± SD78.60 ± 18.9079.54 ± 16.4578.19 ± 19.87t = 0.790.428
SpO2, mean ± SD96.98 ± 4.7397.16 ± 3.8496.91 ± 5.06t = 0.620.534
WBC, M (Q1, Q3)9.70 (7.30, 12.70)9.40 (7.00, 12.00)9.70 (7.40, 12.70)Z = −1.1600.246
RBC, mean ± SD3.65 ± 0.713.62 ± 0.743.66 ± 0.70t = −0.590.555
Sodium, mean ± SD137.70 ± 4.71138.10 ± 4.17137.53 ± 4.92t = 1.330.183
Potassium, mean ± SD4.64 ± 0.974.67 ± 0.964.64 ± 0.98t = 0.340.737
Phosphate, M (Q1, Q3)4.00 (3.30, 4.90)4.00 (3.30, 4.70)4.00 (3.30, 4.90)Z = −0.2530.800
Calcium, mean ± SD8.69 ± 0.958.66 ± 0.968.71 ± 0.94t = −0.580.562
PLT, M (Q1, Q3)216.00 (169.00, 288.00)208.00 (159.00, 269.00)218.50 (173.00, 289.00)Z = −1.3520.176
Lactate, M (Q1,Q3)1.60 (1.22, 2.20)1.60 (1.20, 2.30)1.60 (1.26, 2.20)Z = 0.5200.603
INR, M (Q1,Q3)1.20 (1.10, 1.50)1.20 (1.10, 1.50)1.20 (1.10, 1.40)Z = 0.5070.612
MCV, mean ± SD90.89 ± 7.5691.00 ± 7.4290.85 ± 7.63t = 0.200.838
Magnesium, mean ± SD2.05 ± 0.452.08 ± 0.522.04 ± 0.42t = 0.970.334
Glucose, M (Q1, Q3)166.00 (125.00, 242.00)162.00 (124.00, 230.00)168.50 (125.00, 249.00)Z = −0.6680.504
Creatinine, M (Q1, Q3)2.70 (1.70, 4.30)2.80 (1.80, 4.40)2.65 (1.70, 4.30)Z = 1.1560.248
BUN, M (Q1, Q3)45.00 (31.00, 68.00)42.00 (32.00, 69.00)46.00 (31.00, 68.00)Z = −0.1790.858
Bicarbonate, mean ± SD24.37 ± 5.3924.41 ± 5.2524.36 ± 5.46t = 0.090.927
Hematocrit, mean ± SD32.91 ± 6.0232.63 ± 6.2333.03 ± 5.93t = −0.690.493
Hemoglobin, mean ± SD10.81 ± 1.9510.73 ± 2.0210.84 ± 1.93t = −0.620.538
MCHC, mean ± SD32.85 ± 1.6032.84 ± 1.6632.85 ± 1.58t = −0.090.932
RDW, mean ± SD15.81 ± 1.8915.77 ± 1.7415.82 ± 1.95t = −0.280.782
COPD, n (%)χ 2 = 1.2540.263
 No419 (82.00)121 (79.08)298 (83.24)
 Yes92 (18.00)32 (20.92)60 (16.76)

AF, n (%)χ 2 = 1.6650.197
 No286 (55.97)79 (51.63)207 (57.82)
 Yes225 (44.03)74 (48.37)151 (42.18)

Liver cirrhosis, n (%)χ 2 = 0.2690.604
 No488 (95.50)145 (94.77)343 (95.81)
 Yes23 (4.50)8 (5.23)15 (4.19)

Respiratory failure, n (%)χ 2 = 3.7980.051
 No355 (69.47)97 (63.40)258 (72.07)
 Yes156 (30.53)56 (36.60)100 (27.93)

Hyperlipidemia, n (%)χ 2 = 0.9560.328
 No267 (52.25)85 (55.56)182 (50.84)
 Yes244 (47.75)68 (44.44)176 (49.16)

Malignant cancer, n (%)χ 2 = 1.5710.210
 No405 (79.26)116 (75.82)289 (80.73)
 Yes106 (20.74)37 (24.18)69 (19.27)

SAPS-II score, mean ± SD42.79 ± 11.7843.12 ± 12.4742.66 ± 11.48t = 0.410.686
SOFA score, M (Q1, Q3)6.00 (4.00, 8.00)6.00 (4.00, 8.00)5.00 (4.00, 7.00)Z = 2.1310.033
Insulin, n (%)χ 2 = 2.3260.127
 No33 (6.46)6 (3.92)27 (7.54)
 Yes478 (93.54)147 (96.08)331 (92.46)

Metformin, n (%)Fisher0.768
 No497 (97.26)148 (96.73)349 (97.49)
 Yes14 (2.74)5 (3.27)9 (2.51)

Survival time, M (Q1, Q3)652.00 (87.00, 3650.00)770.00 (103.00, 3650.00)584.00 (80.00, 3650.00)Z = 0.8130.416
eGFR-MDRD, M (Q1, Q3)21.80 (11.97, 34.05)18.92 (11.86, 32.84)22.16 (12.12, 34.48)Z = −1.1910.234
eGFR-CKD-EPI, M (Q1, Q3)21.44 (12.93, 33.35)20.47 (11.85, 32.05)21.98 (13.41, 33.94)Z = -1.4180.156
CVD, n (%)χ 2 = 0.3280.567
 No122 (23.87)34 (22.22)88 (24.58)
 Yes389 (76.13)119 (77.78)270 (75.42)

CKD, n (%)χ 2 = 0.5640.453
 No178 (34.83)57 (37.25)121 (33.80)
 Yes333 (65.17)96 (62.75)237 (66.20)

Myocardial infarction, n (%)χ 2 = 0.1850.667
 No341 (66.73)100 (65.36)241 (67.32)
 Yes170 (33.27)53 (34.64)117 (32.68)

Hypertension, n (%)χ 2 = 0.2740.601
 No400 (78.28)122 (79.74)278 (77.65)
 Yes111 (21.72)31 (20.26)80 (22.35)

Peripheral vascular disease, n (%)χ 2 = 0.0000.994
 No481 (94.13)144 (94.12)337 (94.13)
 Yes30 (5.87)9 (5.88)21 (5.87)

Survival time within 2 years, M (Q1, Q3)730.00(87.00, 730.00)730.00(103.00, 730.00)730.00(80.00, 730.00)Z = 0.9640.335
Death within 2 years, n (%)χ 2 = 0.5160.473
 No295 (57.73)92 (60.13)203 (56.70)
 Yes216 (42.27)61 (39.87)155 (43.30)

LOS: length of stay, SBP: systolic blood pressure, DBP: diastolic blood pressure, MAP: mean arterial pressure, SpO2: peripheral oxygen saturation, WBC: white blood cells, RBC: red blood cells, INR: international normalized ratio, MCV: mean corpuscular volume, MCHC: mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration, RDW: red cell distribution width, COPD: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, AF: atrial fibrillation, eGFR-CKD-EPI: the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation for estimated glomerular filtration rate, eGFR-MDRD: the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation for estimated glomerular filtration rate, CKD: chronic kidney disease, CVD: cardiovascular diseases, SOFA: Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, SAPS-II: the simplified acute physiology score-II.