Current Mathematical Models for Analyzing Anti-Malarial Antibody Data with an Eye to Malaria Elimination and Eradication

Figure 3

AMA1 seropositivity data analysis of northeast region from Bioko Island under the assumption of a past abrupt reduction in malaria transmission intensity. (a) Profile likelihood plot to estimate the best change point for the reversible catalytic model, where the solid and dashed lines refer to the log-likelihood value for the model assuming a stable transmission intensity and the cut-off value accepting that model at a 5% significance level, respectively. (b) Maximum likelihood fits of the reverse catalytic and superinfection models assuming an abrupt reduction in malaria transmission intensity estimated to have occurred 6 years before sampling.

(a)

(b)