[Retracted] Statistical Inferences of Burr XII Lifetime Models under Joint Type-1 Competing Risks Samples

Abushal, Tahani A.; Soliman, A. A.; Abd-Elmougod, G. A.

doi:https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/9553617

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Volume 2021 | Article ID 9553617 | https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/9553617

[Retracted] Statistical Inferences of Burr XII Lifetime Models under Joint Type-1 Competing Risks Samples

Tahani A. Abushal,¹A. A. Soliman,²and G. A. Abd-Elmougod³

Academic Editor: Naeem Jan

Received24 Sept 2021

Accepted10 Nov 2021

Published24 Dec 2021

Abstract

The problem of statistical inference under joint censoring samples has received considerable attention in the past few years. In this paper, we adopted this problem when units under the test fail with different causes of failure which is known by the competing risks model. The model is formulated under consideration that only two independent causes of failure and the unit are collected from two lines of production and its life distributed with Burr XII lifetime distribution. So, under Type-I joint competing risks samples, we obtained the maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayes estimators. Interval estimation is discussed through asymptotic confidence interval, bootstrap confidence intervals, and Bayes credible interval. The numerical computations which described the quality of theoretical results are discussed in the forms of real data analyzed and Monte Carlo simulation study. Finally, numerical results are discussed and listed through some points as a brief comment.

1. Introduction

The failure times which are obtained from life testing experiments are exposed in complete or censored data. Therefore, the word complete data is used when the failure time of all units under the test is observed but, under some restrictions of time and cost, the failure time of some not all units is observed. Then, we used the word censoring data when the available lifetime data are taken from some units under the test. Censoring scheme can be done under different forms, and the commonly ones are known by Type-I and Type-II censoring schemes (CSs). In Type-I CS, the test has a prefixed time and random number of failure units. However, in Type-II CS, the test time is random and has prefixed number of failure units. Each of Type-I CS and Type-II CS does not allow to remove unit from the test other than the final point. The availability of removed units from the test at any stage is known by progressive censoring scheme (see Balakrishnan and Aggarwala [1]). Under consideration that units of product are taken from different lines of production under the same facility, the joint censoring scheme appeared. Censoring schemes under joint sample are called joint censoring scheme (JCS). Therefore, we combine the joint censoring scheme with Type-I and Type-II censoring schemes to obtain the Type-I and Type-II joint censoring schemes (Type-I and Type-II JCSs).

The product produced from the different lines of production under the same facilities needs some tests to measure the relative merits in a competing duration. In practice, JCSs are applied on random selection taken from lines of production. Different authors exposed to this problem, for early discussion, such as Rao et al. [2] developed the rank order theory under two-sample censoring scheme, Basu [3] presented and discussed the statistics of rank sets from two-sample scheme called Savage statistic, Johnson and Mehrotra [4] used two-sample problem to preset the locally most powerful rank tests under censored data, Bhattacharyya and Johnson [5] applied two-sample censored situation for asymptotic sufficiency and asymptotically most powerful tests, Mehrotra and Bhattacharyya [6] measured the equality of two exponential distributions testing under Type-II censoring, and Mehrotra and Bhattacharyya [7] discussed under jointly Type-II censored samples the confidence intervals from two exponential distributions. Also, Balakrishnan and Rasouli [8] presented exact likelihood inferences under jointly censoring schemes, Rasouli and Balakrishnan [9] discussed the exact likelihood inference under joint progressive Type-II censoring for two exponential populations, and Shafay et al. [10] discussed the Bayes inference under joint Type-II censored sample for two exponential populations. And, this problem is handled recently by Al-Matrafi and Abd-Elmougod [11], Momenkhan and Abd-Elmougod [12], Mondal and Kundu [13], and Mondal andKundu [14]. The problem of statistical inference under jointly censoring schemes with the competing risks model is recently discussed by Almarashi et al. [15].

Under Type-I JCS, a sample of size is randomly selected from two lines of production and to satisfy that is selected from the first line and is selected from the second line , and the ideal test time is given. The sample of size taken from the line has lifetimes distributed with PDF and CDF given, respectively, by and . Also, from the line has lifetimes with PDF and CDF given, respectively, by and . Under given the test time , the ordered life times , , obtained from the joint sample , , present the Type-I JCS. Therefore, under Type-I JCS, the failure time and the corresponding type of failure (mean from the line or ) are recorded. Hence, the Type-I JCS is given bywhere or 0 dependent on the failure from the line or the line , respectively. Suppose that the integer numbers denoted the number of failure from the line given by and number of failure from the line given by . Hence, the joint likelihood function under , Type-I JCS, is formulated bywhere , , mean the reliability functions and presents the parameters vector.

In a real-life testing, commonly the failure times of units/individuals may be reported under different causes of failure which is known by the competing risks model. In this problem, our aim is measuring the risk of one cause of failure with respect to other causes. Early, this problem was discussed under exponential populations by Cox [16] and some properties of the competing risks model by Crowder [17], Balakrishnan and Han [18], Modhesh and Abd-Elmougod [19], and Bakoban and Abd-Elmougod [20]. Recently, the properties of the competing risks model under the accelerated life test model were discussed by Ganguly and Kundu [21], Hanaa and Neveen [22], and Algarn et al. [23]. The competing risk problem under Type-I censoring scheme can be described as follows.

Suppose that unit is put under life testing experiment and the ideal test is given under consideration that only two independent causes of failure exist. The failure time and the corresponding cause of failure are recorded, say and . The joint likelihood function under competing risks Type-I,, is formulated bywhere

Early, the Burr system is introduced as a system that includes twelve types of cumulative distribution functions (see Burr [24]). Also, the Burr system present a variety of density shapes that are applied in different branches of sciences such as chemical engineering, medical and reliability studies, business, and quality control. The Burr XII distribution which is member of this system has different application in life testing models. The random variable is called Burr XII random variable if it has cumulative distribution function (CDF) given by

Burr XII distribution has unimodal or decreasing failure rate function. Also, the shape of failure rate function is not affected by shape parameters and has unimodal curve when . Also, it has decreasing failure rate function when . Therefore, the shape parameter is more effective in distribution. Different authors discussed Burr XII such as Rodriguez [25], Lee et al. [26], and recently Hassan and Nada [27].

The product coming from different lines of production is tested under the type of testing known by comparative life tests. When population units or individuals fail under different causes of failure, we have joint competing risks' data as an important source of data. Our aims in this paper are building the statistical inferences of Burr XII life populations based on this competing risk Type-I JCS. Then, we give a complete description for the model formulation considering only two independent causes of failure and the unit life distributed with Burr XII lifetime distribution. The collected data observed under this model are used to estimate the model parameters with maximum likelihood estimation for point and corresponding confidence interval. Also, two confidence intervals with bootstrap- and bootstrap- are formulated. The Bayes approach is used to construct the point and credible interval estimations. Different tools are used to measure the quality performance of these estimators. The point estimations were measured under mean squared errors (MSEs). And, the interval estimations were measured under interval length (IL) and probability coverage (PC) through the Monte Carlo simulation study. Also, we analyze the real data set to illustrate our purpose.

The paper is planned as follows. Section 2 discusses general assumptions and modeling. Estimation with MLE, point, and asymptotic confidence intervals is presented in Section 3. Bootstrap confidence intervals are discussed in Section 4. Bayes estimation is presented in Section 5. The real example is used and analyzed in Section 6. Assessment and comparing the numerical results with simulation study are presented in Section 7. The brief comments are summarized in Section 8.

2. Model Formulation

Let a sample of size be selected from two lines and ( from and from ) for a life testing experiment, and the ideal test time is proposed. When the experiment is running, the failure time and the corresponding type as well as cause of failure are reported. The experiment is continual until is observed; then, we can say , , are observed. Therefore, the random set , and is called Type-I joint competing risks sample (Type-I JCRS). Therefore, under Type-I JCRS, we have the following assumption:(1)The number present number of failure from the line .(2)The number present number of failure from the line .(3)The number present number of failure from the line and cause .(4)The number present number of failure from the line and cause . Hence, the joint likelihood function of Type-I JCRS is formulated by where is given by (4).(5)If defines the unit type, then the observed failure time , .(6)The CDF of random variable of Burr XII lifetime distribution is given by(7)The minimum value has distribution given by . Therefore, the latent failure time is distributed with Burr XII distributions with shape parameters and .(8)The discrete random variables and have the binomial distributions given by

3. Maximum Likelihood Estimation

The model parameters in this section are discussed under given Type-I JCRS from Burr XII distribution. The joint likelihood function (7) is reduced towhere and be Type-I JCRS. Function (10) after taking the natural logarithm is reduced to

3.1. Point Estimation

From the log-likelihood function, we obtain the likelihood equations by taking the first partially derivatives respective to the model parameters as follows:which reduced to

And the derivatives with respect to are reduced to the likelihood equations as follows:which reduced to

Equations (13) to (17) have shown that the problem of obtaining the ML estimate of model parameters needs to solve two nonlinear equations (16) and (17) to obtain , . Different iteration methods can be applied such as Newton–Raphson or fixed point iteration with initial value can be obtained from the profile log-likelihood (11) after replacing the parameters of equations (13) and (14) as follows:

Also, the ML estimate of parameters is obtained from (13) and (14) after replacing by .

Remark 1. The equations from (13) to (17) showed that the conditional estimators of the model parameters depend on the discrete random variable . Hence, the estimate and does not exist for or and or , respectively. And, the problem of exact distributions for estimators and is defined as mixture of discrete and continuous distributions, hence as given in Kundu and Joarder [28] is difficult to obtain.

3.2. Interval Estimation

The asymptotic confidence intervals of model parameters depend on the second partial derivative of the log-likelihood function (11) and hence information matrix (see Salah [29]). And, the Fisher information matrix of the model parameters is defined as the minus expectation of the second partial derivatives which is presented as follows:

Suppose that the fisher information matrix is defined by , wherewhere be the model parameters. Equation (19) has shown that the expectations of the second derivative of the log likelihood function are more serious. Therefore, we applied the approximate information matrix defined by

Therefore, exists with nonzero values of the elements of diagonal. Under normal properties of , the approximate confidence intervals of the parameters , and are given bywhere is the element of diagonal of the invariance approximate information matrix with significant level .

4. Bootstrap Confidence Intervals

In this section, we discussed a bootstrap technique in statistical inference problem about parameters estimation. This technique is a commonly resembling method not only in parameter estimation but also used to estimate bias and variance of an estimator or calibrate hypothesis tests. The bootstrap technique is defined in parametric and nonparametric methods (see Davison and Hinkley [30] and Efron and Tibshirani [31]). Therefore, we adopted parametric bootstrap technique to build two different confidence intervals, percentile bootstrap technique, and bootstrap- technique. For more details, see Efron [32] and Hall [33]. The following algorithms are used to describe the procedure that is used to build different two bootstrap confidence intervals:(1)Under consideration that the original observed Type-I JCRS , the estimates are obtained and given by .(2)For given and integer values of , , and time , generate a sample of size from Burr XII distribution with shape parameters and and a sample of size from Burr XII distribution with shape parameters and . The -bootstrap Type-I JCRS is obtained from the generated joint sample as a small satisfies that denoted by .(3)From Step 2, the two numbers and (number of failure taken from line and , respectively) are obtained.(4)The four numbers and , , are randomly generated from binomial distribution with size and probability , .(5)The bootstrap estimate sample is obtained.(6)Repeat Steps 2 to 5 times.(7)The values , , are arranged in ascending order to obtain .

4.1. Percentile Bootstrap Confidence Interval (PBCI)

Suppose that the ordered sample described by distribution , , be cumulative distribution function of , where mean and others. So, the point bootstrap estimate is defined by

Also, the PBCIs are given bywhere .

4.2. Bootstrap-t Confidence Interval (PTCI)

From the order sample , we built the order statistics values , where

The PTCIs are given bywhere the value is given byand be the cumulative distribution function of .

5. Bayesian MCMC Estimation

In this section, we adopted Bayesian approach to estimate the model parameters under Type-I JCRS (see Ullah and Aslam [34]). So, we suppose that the prior information available about the parameters are independent Gamma prior distributions. Therefore, for parameters vectors , the prior information is defined by

And the corresponding density is defined by

Therefore, the posterior distribution can be formulated by using (10) and (29) as follows:

The full conditional distributions are obtained from the joint posterior distribution (29), as follows:and the full conditional distributions of parameters are gamma distributions given aswhere the conditional value means that the conditional i-th parameter for given the parameter vector without the i-th parameter . The point and interval estimate of model parameters under MCMC methods depend on the forms of full conditional distributions and the subclass of MCMC that can be applied. Therefore, full conditional distribution given by (31) to (34) has shown that we can use the algorithms of Gibbs and generally Metropolis Hasting (MH) under Gibbs (for more details, see [35]) described in Algorithm 1.

(1)	Put and as initial values
(2)	The parameters are generated from Gamma distributions (32) and (33)
(3)	With normal proposal distribution with the accepted rejection method with mean and variances , generate
(4)	Put
(5)	Steps 2 to 4 are repeated times and report the vector

The problem of generation under the MCMC method needs to determine the number of iteration needed to reach stationary distribution (burn-in) which is defined by . Therefore, the point estimate is reduced toand the corresponding variance is reduced to

Also, credible intervals are obtained from ordered vectors given by

6. Real Data Analysis

In this section, we analyzed a real data set presented by Hoel [36] to present the failure times and the corresponding cause of failure for two groups of strain male mice under laboratory experiment received a radiation dose of at an age of 5-6 weeks. The life data are presented in Table 1, and let be considered as the first group which lived in a conventional laboratory environment, but be the second group lived in a germ-free environment. The data are classified into two causes of failure: thymic lymphoma with reticulum cell sarcoma as the first cause of death (failure) and the second cause is presented by other causes of death (failure); more details are presented by Koley and Kundu [37]. For simplicity, the data are divided by 1000.

Therefore, the observed Type-I JCRS is taken from two lines of production and under censoring scheme , and and is reported in Table 2. The data given in Table 2 show that , , and . Figure 1 shows the joint profile log-likelihood function (18), and the value (2, 2) is a suitable initial value needed in the iteration method. The point estimate under ML, bootstrap, and Bayes estimators for noninformative prior information (mean , ) is reported in Table 3. And, the corresponding approximate ML, two bootstrap confidence (Bootstrap- and Bootstrap-), and credibly intervals are, respectively, reported in Table 4. The generation results of full conditional distribution as a generation from posterior distribution and its convergence for Bayesian approach under MCMC methods are described in Figures 2 to 7 which have shown the quality of posterior generation.

7. Simulation Studies

The proposed model and its theoretical results in section are assessed and compared through the Monte Carlo study. So, we built this study to measure the effect of changing each of random sample size , the test time , and parameters values. The values of sample size and the corresponding test time used in simulation study are reported in Tables 5 to 8. However, for the parameter values choosing, we used two sets, and {1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 2.0, 2.5, 1.0}. In our studying, we generate 1000 simulated data sets. The prior parameters are selected to satisfy the property that E and information presented with two cases noninformative defined by and informative prior . The informative prior is taken to be (a, b) = {(3, 0.8), (2, 1.5), (2, 2), (2, 1), (3, 1.5), (4, 2)} for the first selected parameter values. And the informative prior information for the second selection of the parameters values is (a, b) = {(2, 2), (2, 2), (3, 1.2), (4, 2), (4, 1.5), (1, 1)}. Also, through this problem, mean estimate (ME) and the corresponding mean squared error (MSE) are used to measure the point estimate. And, mean interval length (MIL) and probability coverage (PC) are used to measure interval estimate. The Monte Carlo study is done with respect to Algorithm 2.

(1)	Two samples of size and are generated form Burr XII distribution with parameters and , respectively. Hence, the joint sample of size is generated.
(2)	For given , the Type-I JCRS and its size are determined.
(3)	The integers and are computed from the Type-I JCRS.
(4)	The random integers are generated from binomial distributions.
(5)	Steps 1 to 4 are repeated 1000 times to obtain 1000 Type-I JCRS.
(6)	The MLE, bootstrap, and Bayes point and intervals estimates are computed for each sample.
(7)	The values of each ME, MSEs, MILs, and PCs are computed and reported in Tables 5–8.

8. Conclusions

Recently, the joint censoring scheme is more widely used in a comparative life testing specially for products coming from different lines of production. The problem of comparative life testes under different causes of failure has been discussed recently under the joint censoring scheme of competing risks exponential lifetime model by Almarashi et al. [15]. In this paper, we adopted this problem when units or individual is distributed with Burr XII distributions. The unknown model parameters are estimated with classical methods (ML and bootstrap) and Bayes method with noninformative and informative prior. Numerical computation is exposed with real data analysis and Monto Carlo simulation study to assess and discuss the developed results. The numerical result discusses changing of sample size, test time, and available information. Therefore, we observed the following points:(1)The proposed model under Type-I JCRS serves well for all choice of censoring schemes and parameters choices(2)The Bayes estimation under noninformative prior is more close to maximum likelihood estimation(3)The informative priors serve better than noninformative prior and maximum likelihood estimations(4)The increasing effect of sample size reduces the MSE and MIL(5)The large value of test time serves well than small value of

Data Availability

The used data are the real data set presented by Hoel (1972) in [36].

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the Deanship of Scientific Research at Umm Al-Qura University for supporting this work by grant no. 19-SCI-1-03-0011.

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Copyright © 2021 Tahani A. Abushal et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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