Research Article

Prognostic Value of ctDNA Mutation in Melanoma: A Meta-Analysis

Table 1

The detailed characteristics of the included studies.

First author, publication yearCountryPatient no. or prognostic analysis no./total no.TNM stageSample originTime of sample collectionClinical therapyDetection methodsTarget genes/variantsCutoff valueExperimental no./control no.Positive ratioEndpointFollow-up durationConfounding factorsNOS score

Kozak et al., [22]Poland62IIIC-IVPlasmaPretreatment, posttreatmentBRAF inhibitor vemurafenibddPCR (bio-rad)BRAFV600ENA48/14 (pretreatment), 18/44 (posttreatment)48/62 (pretreatment), 18/62 (posttreatment)PFS, OS55.4 months (median)7
Váraljai et al., [23] (immune checkpoint inhibition therapy)German18/33III-IVPlasmaPretreatment, posttreatmentImmune checkpoint inhibitorsddPCRBRAFV600E, NRASQ61, TERTPROMNA12/6m (BRAFV600E)NAPFSNA6
Váraljai et al., [23] (signaling-targeted therapy)German33/58III-IVPlasmaPretreatment, posttreatmentMAPK signaling-targeted drugsddPCRBRAFV600E, NRASQ61, TERTPROMNA21/12m (BRAFV600E), 21/12 (NRASQ61)21/33 (NRASQ61)PFS, OSNA6
Váraljai et al., [23] (validation cohort)German, Belgium35III-IVPlasmaPretreatment, posttreatmentPembrolizumab or nivolumab plus ipilimumabddPCRBRAFV600E, NRASQ61, TERTPROMNA20/15mNAPFSNA6
Tan et al., [13] (MRV)Australia81/133IIIPlasmaPretreatment, posttreatmentOperation alone or in combination with adjuvant immune checkpoint inhibitorddPCR (bio-rad)BRAFV600E/V600K, NRASQ61L/Q61K/Q61R, TP53R248W, KITL576P, TERTC250T/C228T≥1 copy of mutant DNA detected in both duplicate reactions21/37 (pretreatment), 13/39 (posttreatment)21/58 (pretreatment), 13/52 (posttreatment)OS20 months (median)8
Seremet et al., [15]Belgium63/85III-IVPlasmaPretreatment, posttreatmentAnti-PD1 therapy pembrolizumabddPCR (Bio-Rad) and idylla platform (Biocartis)BRAFV600, NRASQ61/G12/G13NA35/2828/63PFS, OS84 weeks (median)ctDNA, LDH, CRP, number of tumor sites and ECOG variables7
Forthun et al., [16]Norway26IVPlasmaPretreatment, posttreatmentBevacizumab treatmentddPCR (Bio-Rad)NRASQ61/G12, BRAFV600, TERTC288T/C250T>2 droplets positive for the mutation assayNA23/26 (NRASQ61/G12, BRAFV600)PFS, OS6 monthsctDNA, LDH7
Salemi et al., [24]Italy26/28IV (1 case of unknown)SerumPretreatment, posttreatmentBRAF inhibitors alone or in combination with MEK inhibitorsddPCR (Bio-Rad)BRAFV600E≥3 FAM/HEX-positive droplets11/1511/26PFS, OSNA6
McEvoy et al., [25]Australia32IVPlasmaPretreatmentTargeted therapy and/or immunotherapyddPCR (Bio-Rad)BRAF, NRAS, KITNA23/923/32PFS64.4 weeks (median)ctDNA, age, sex, ECOG, MTB$, stage7
Lu et al., [26] (chemotherapeutic drug)12 countriesb258/338IIIC-IVPlasmaPretreatment, posttreatmentChemotherapeutic drug dacarbazineddPCR (Bio-Rad)BRAFV600≥10 copies172/86172/258OS9.5 months (median)7
Lu et al., [26] (BRAF inhibitor)12 countriesb293/337IIIC-IVPlasmaPretreatment, posttreatmentBRAF inhibitor vemurafenibddPCR (Bio-Rad)BRAFV600≥10 copies188/105188/293OS12.5 months (median)7
Lee et al., [14]UK161II-IIIPlasmaPretreatment (after operation)Bevacizumab versus placeboddPCR (Bio-Rad)BRAFV600E, NRASQ61K/Q61L≥1 copy of mutant DNA detected19/14219/161OS5 years (median)ctDNA, ECOG, stage7
Herbreteau et al., [27]France53IIIC-IVPlasmaPretreatment, posttreatmentNivolumab alone or in combination with ipilimumabdPCR (The QuantStudio 3D digital PCR system)BRAFV600E/V600K, NRASQ61K/Q61R/Q61L/G12D≥8 mutated copies/mL30/2323/53PFS, OS6.8 months (median)7
Gonzalez-Cao et al., [28]Spain58/66IV (6 case of unknown)Serum and plasmaPretreatment, posttreatmentBRAFi/MEKi, chemotherapy, ipilimumab, palliativePNA probe-based TaqMan assayBRAFV600NA38/20, 15/43#38/58PFS, OSNA6
Lee et al., [29]Australia76IVPlasmaPretreatment, posttreatmentPembrolizumab or nivolumab monotherapy, or in combination with ipilimumabddPCR (Bio-Rad)BRAFV600E/V600K/L597Q/L597R/G464E/G466E, NRASQ61H/Q61K/Q61L/Q61R, KITK642E≥3 positive mutant droplets36/40 (pretreatment), 58/18 (posttreatment)40/76 (pretreatment), 18/76 (posttreatment)PFS, OS17.5 months (median)ctDNA, LDH, disease volume, ECOG and AJCC tumour stage variables8
Santiago-Walker et al., [30] (BREAK-3)12 countriesb170/250III-IVPlasmaPretreatmentBRAF inhibitor dabrafenib or DTICBEAMing technologyBRAFV600E/V600KMultiple determination methods137/33137/170PFS, OS4.9 months (median)8
Santiago-Walker et al., [30] (BREAK-MB)6 countriesa54/172IVPlasmaPretreatmentBRAF inhibitor dabrafenibBEAMing technologyBRAFV600E/V600KMultiple determination methods40/1440/54PFS, OS4 months8
Santiago-Walker et al., [30] (METRIC)Multi- countriesb169/322IIIC-IVPlasmaPretreatmentMEK inhibitor trametinib or chemotherapyBEAMing technologyBRAFV600E/V600KMultiple determination methods124/45124/169PFS, OSNA8
Gray et al., [12] (targeted therapy)Australia29IVPlasmaPretreatment, posttreatmentMAPK inhibiting therapiesddPCR (Bio-Rad)BRAFV600E/V600K, NRASQ61R/K>1 copy per ml17/12#NAPFSNActDNA levels, age, sex, metastatic disease stage and LDH status6
Gray et al., [12] (immunotherapy)Australia19IVPlasmaPretreatment, posttreatmentImmunotherapiesddPCR (Bio-Rad)BRAFV600E/V600K, NRASQ61R/K>1 copy per ml15/4#NAPFSNA6
Board et al., [17]10 countriesb45/126III-IVSerumPretreatmentMEK inhibitor vs TMZARMS allele-specific PCRBRAFV600Only if all three replicates were positive25/2025/45PFSNA6
Shinozaki et al., [31] (biochemotherapy)USA20/50IVSerumPosttreatment, pretreatmentBiochemotherapyReal-time PCRBRAFV600EThe amount of target mutant DNA contained in 1 µg/mL MA genomic DNA8/128/20OSNA6

Abbreviations: ddPCR, droplet digital PCR; dPCR, digital PCR; PNA, peptide-nucleic acid; BEAMing technology, beads, emulsion, amplification and magnetic technology; ARMS allele-specific PCR, amplification refractory mutation system allele-specific PCR; PFS, progression-free survival; OS, overall survival; NA, not available; NOS, Newcastle–Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale. The data were not included in the summary analysis because no prognostic data were available. #The data were grouped into high and low or undetectable ctDNA. mThe data were grouped into increase and decrease ctDNA. aAustralia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and the USA. bThe original study did not list specific country names.