First major osteoporotic fractures observed among Rochester, MN women and men compared to numbers predicted by revised US FRAX (FN BMD), by age at baseline and quartile of full 10-year fracture probability (%).
Quartileb
≥40 years old at baseline
≥60 years old at baseline
Observed
Predicted
SIR (95% CI)a
Observed
Predicted
SIR (95% CI)a
Women
Q1 (0 to <4.7)
2
1.7
1.2 (0.2–4.4)
0
—c
N.A.
Q2 (4.7 to <10.4)
5
4.5
1.1 (0.4–2.6)
4
2.6
1.5 (0.4–3.9)
Q3 (10.4 to <17.9)
15
7.6
2.0 (1.1–3.3)
13
6.3
2.0 (1.1–3.5)
Q4 (17.9 to 44.9)
22
15.5
1.5 (0.95–2.3)
22
14.3
1.5 (0.96–2.3)
Subtotal
44
28.2
1.6 (1.1–2.1)
39
23.3
1.7 (1.2–2.3)
Men
Q1 (0 to <3.6)
3
1.3
2.2 (0.5–6.6)
1
0.2
5.6 (0.1–31)
Q2 (3.6 to <5.2)
2
2.5
0.8 (0.1–2.9)
2
1.5
1.4 (0.2–4.9)
Q3 (5.2 to <8.1)
7
3.1
2.3 (0.9–4.7)
5
2.4
2.1 (0.7–5.0)
Q4 (8.1 to 29.8)
6
6.4
0.9 (0.4–2.1)
6
5.4
1.1 (0.4–2.4)
Subtotal
18
13.2
1.4 (0.8–2.2)
14
9.4
1.5 (0.8–2.5)
Total
62
41.5
1.5 (1.2–1.9)
53
32.7
1.6 (1.2–2.1)
aStandardized incidence ratio (SIR) and 95% confidence interval (CI).
bQuartiles (Q) defined using all ages.
cNo subjects in this group.
