Journal of Probability and Statistics
 Journal metrics
Acceptance rate20%
Submission to final decision49 days
Acceptance to publication28 days
CiteScore-
Journal Citation Indicator0.320
Impact Factor-

Modeling of the COVID-19 Cases in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries Using ARIMA and MA-ARIMA Models

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Journal of Probability and Statistics publishes papers on the theory and application of probability and statistics that consider new methods and approaches to their implementation, or report significant results for the field.

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Research Article

Explicit Solutions of the Extended Skorokhod Problems in Affine Transformations of Time-Dependent Strata

The goal of this paper is to expand the explicit formula for the solutions of the Extended Skorokhod Problem developed earlier for a special class of constraining domains in with orthogonal reflection fields. We examine how affine transformations convert solutions of the Extended Skorokhod Problem into solutions of the new problem for the transformed constraining system. We obtain an explicit formula for the solutions of the Extended Skorokhod Problem for any - valued càdlàg function with the constraining set that changes in time and the reflection field naturally defined by any basis. The evolving constraining set is a region sandwiched between two graphs in the coordinate system generating the reflection field. We discuss the Lipschitz properties of the extended Skorokhod map and derive Lipschitz constants in special cases of constraining sets of this type.

Research Article

Assessing the Performance of the Discrete Generalised Pareto Distribution in Modelling Non-Life Insurance Claims

The generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) offers a family of probability spaces which support threshold exceedances and is thus suitable for modelling high-end actuarial risks. Nonetheless, its distributional continuity presents a critical limitation in characterising data of discrete forms. Discretising the GPD, therefore, yields a derived distribution which accommodates the count data while maintaining the essential tail modelling properties of the GPD. In this paper, we model non-life insurance claims under the three-parameter discrete generalised Pareto (DGP) distribution. Data for the study on reported and settled claims, spanning the period 2012–2016, were obtained from the National Insurance Commission, Ghana. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) principle was adopted in fitting the DGP to yearly and aggregated data. The estimation involved two steps. First, we propose a modification to the and frequency method in the literature. The proposal provides an alternative routine for generating initial estimators for MLE, in cases of varied count intervals, as is a characteristic of the claim data under study. Second, a bootstrap algorithm is implemented to obtain standard errors of estimators of the DGP parameters. The performance of the DGP is compared to the negative binomial distribution in modelling the claim data using the Akaike and Bayesian information criteria. The results show that the DGP is appropriate for modelling the count of non-life insurance claims and provides a better fit to the regulatory claim data considered.

Research Article

Hidden Geometry of Bidirectional Grid-Constrained Stochastic Processes

Bidirectional Grid Constrained (BGC) stochastic processes (BGCSPs) are constrained Itô diffusions with the property that the further they drift away from the origin, the more the resistance to movement in that direction they undergo. The underlying characteristics of the BGC parameter are investigated by examining its geometric properties. The most appropriate convex form for , that is, the parabolic cylinder is identified after extensive simulation of various possible forms. The formula for the resulting hidden reflective barrier(s) is determined by comparing it with the simpler Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process (OUP). Applications of BGCSP arise when a series of semipermeable barriers are present, such as regulating interest rates and chemical reactions under concentration gradients, which gives rise to two hidden reflective barriers.

Research Article

Evaluation of Four Multiple Imputation Methods for Handling Missing Binary Outcome Data in the Presence of an Interaction between a Dummy and a Continuous Variable

Multiple imputation by chained equations (MICE) is the most common method for imputing missing data. In the MICE algorithm, imputation can be performed using a variety of parametric and nonparametric methods. The default setting in the implementation of MICE is for imputation models to include variables as linear terms only with no interactions, but omission of interaction terms may lead to biased results. It is investigated, using simulated and real datasets, whether recursive partitioning creates appropriate variability between imputations and unbiased parameter estimates with appropriate confidence intervals. We compared four multiple imputation (MI) methods on a real and a simulated dataset. MI methods included using predictive mean matching with an interaction term in the imputation model in MICE (MICE-interaction), classification and regression tree (CART) for specifying the imputation model in MICE (MICE-CART), the implementation of random forest (RF) in MICE (MICE-RF), and MICE-Stratified method. We first selected secondary data and devised an experimental design that consisted of 40 scenarios (2 × 5 × 4), which differed by the rate of simulated missing data (10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, and 50%), the missing mechanism (MAR and MCAR), and imputation method (MICE-Interaction, MICE-CART, MICE-RF, and MICE-Stratified). First, we randomly drew 700 observations with replacement 300 times, and then the missing data were created. The evaluation was based on raw bias (RB) as well as five other measurements that were averaged over the repetitions. Next, in a simulation study, we generated data 1000 times with a sample size of 700. Then, we created missing data for each dataset once. For all scenarios, the same criteria were used as for real data to evaluate the performance of methods in the simulation study. It is concluded that, when there is an interaction effect between a dummy and a continuous predictor, substantial gains are possible by using recursive partitioning for imputation compared to parametric methods, and also, the MICE-Interaction method is always more efficient and convenient to preserve interaction effects than the other methods.

Research Article

A Mixture of Regular Vines for Multiple Dependencies

To uncover complex hidden dependency structures among variables, researchers have used a mixture of vine copula constructions. To date, these have been limited to a subclass of regular vine models, the so-called drawable vine, fitting only one type of bivariate copula for all variable pairs. However, the variation of complex hidden correlations from one pair of variables to another is more likely to be present in many real datasets. Single-type bivariate copulas are unable to deal with such a problem. In addition, the regular vine copula model is much more capable and flexible than its subclasses. Hence, to fully uncover and describe complex hidden dependency structures among variables and provide even further flexibility to the mixture of regular vine models, a mixture of regular vine models, with a mixed choice of bivariate copulas, is proposed in this paper. The model was applied to simulated and real data to illustrate its performance. The proposed model shows significant performance over the mixture of R-vine densities with a single copula family fitted to all pairs.

Research Article

Two-Stage Joint Model for Multivariate Longitudinal and Multistate Processes, with Application to Renal Transplantation Data

In longitudinal studies, clinicians usually collect longitudinal biomarkers’ measurements over time until an event such as recovery, disease relapse, or death occurs. Joint modeling approaches are increasingly used to study the association between one longitudinal and one survival outcome. However, in practice, a patient may experience multiple disease progression events successively. So instead of modeling of a single event, progression of the disease as a multistate process should be modeled. On the other hand, in such studies, multivariate longitudinal outcomes may be collected and their association with the survival process is of interest. In the present study, we applied a joint model of various longitudinal biomarkers and transitions between different health statuses in patients who underwent renal transplantation. The full joint likelihood approaches are faced with the complexities in computation of the likelihood. So, here, we have proposed two-stage modeling of multivariate longitudinal outcomes and multistate conditions to avoid these complexities. The proposed model showed reliable results compared to the joint model in case of joint modeling of univariate longitudinal biomarker and the multistate process.

Journal of Probability and Statistics
 Journal metrics
Acceptance rate20%
Submission to final decision49 days
Acceptance to publication28 days
CiteScore-
Journal Citation Indicator0.320
Impact Factor-
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