Parameter Estimation in Mean Reversion Processes with Deterministic Long-Term Trend

<div>Estimated <svg height="12.7178pt" id="M223" style="vertical-align:-3.42947pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 25.4413 12.7178" width="25.4413pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M538 96L524 119C492 88 454 63 446 63C439 63 434 70 440 101C463 223 491 341 518 448H508L433 422L401 276C355 192 240 56 188 56C163 56 154 89 163 133C184 233 207 338 235 443L230 448L152 424L58 17C40 -60 23 -143 23 -185C23 -241 42 -261 63 -261C92 -261 117 -241 125 -227L124 -221C109 -209 89 -165 89 -103C89 -55 96 -13 105 26H107C121 -3 134 -12 151 -12C172 -12 194 -5 221 16C279 61 330 124 384 194H386C381 159 377 141 368 105C343 3 363 -12 383 -12C416 -12 486 35 538 96Z" id="g113-234"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="555" vert-adv-y="555"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.89,3.132)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z" id="g50-50"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,11.836,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z" id="g113-41"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="346" vert-adv-y="346"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,16.334,0)"><path d="M324 430H196L233 583L223 592L145 529L120 430H54L29 396L31 388H111L56 126C33 15 54 -12 77 -12C137 -12 214 57 250 95L233 119C208 92 155 59 138 59C126 59 120 70 131 125L186 390L298 394L324 430Z" id="g113-117"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="341" vert-adv-y="341"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,20.768,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z" id="g113-42"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="346" vert-adv-y="346"></glyph.data></g></svg> and <svg height="12.7178pt" id="M224" style="vertical-align:-3.42947pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 25.4413 12.7178" width="25.4413pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M538 96L524 119C492 88 454 63 446 63C439 63 434 70 440 101C463 223 491 341 518 448H508L433 422L401 276C355 192 240 56 188 56C163 56 154 89 163 133C184 233 207 338 235 443L230 448L152 424L58 17C40 -60 23 -143 23 -185C23 -241 42 -261 63 -261C92 -261 117 -241 125 -227L124 -221C109 -209 89 -165 89 -103C89 -55 96 -13 105 26H107C121 -3 134 -12 151 -12C172 -12 194 -5 221 16C279 61 330 124 384 194H386C381 159 377 141 368 105C343 3 363 -12 383 -12C416 -12 486 35 538 96Z" id="g113-234"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="555" vert-adv-y="555"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.89,3.132)"><path d="M414 144C384 79 371 75 317 75H135L276 221C367 316 408 376 408 465C408 570 327 635 237 635C179 635 131 609 100 575L42 494L67 471C94 510 138 565 205 565C277 565 321 517 321 435C321 348 258 270 195 195C146 137 88 81 33 26V0H411C423 44 433 88 446 135L414 144Z" id="g50-51"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,11.836,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z" id="g113-41"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="346" vert-adv-y="346"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,16.334,0)"><path d="M324 430H196L233 583L223 592L145 529L120 430H54L29 396L31 388H111L56 126C33 15 54 -12 77 -12C137 -12 214 57 250 95L233 119C208 92 155 59 138 59C126 59 120 70 131 125L186 390L298 394L324 430Z" id="g113-117"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="341" vert-adv-y="341"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,20.768,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z" id="g113-42"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="346" vert-adv-y="346"></glyph.data></g></svg>. The left side correspond to Case <svg height="8.39864pt" id="M225" style="vertical-align:-0.04981995pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 6.36303 8.39864" width="6.36303pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z" id="g113-50"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="480" vert-adv-y="480"></glyph.data></g></svg> (sinusoidal) and the right side to Case <svg height="8.39864pt" id="M226" style="vertical-align:-0.04981995pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 6.36303 8.39864" width="6.36303pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M412 140C382 77 369 73 315 73H129L270 222C362 320 402 379 402 466C402 571 322 635 234 635C177 635 130 609 99 576L42 495L64 475C90 514 133 568 201 568C274 568 318 519 318 435C318 349 255 267 193 193C144 135 87 78 32 23V0H405C417 45 427 89 440 131L412 140Z" id="g113-51"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="480" vert-adv-y="480"></glyph.data></g></svg> (parabolic). The (A) plots are obtained with the convolution <svg height="15.535pt" id="M227" style="vertical-align:-3.9436pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -11.5914 19.3736 15.535" width="19.3736pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z" id="g113-41"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="346" vert-adv-y="346"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,4.498,0)"><path d="M383 397C383 424 344 448 299 448C244 448 172 409 132 375C66 319 23 227 23 146C23 42 74 -12 146 -12C208 -12 298 30 359 103L343 124C315 95 248 48 192 48C145 48 111 85 111 163C111 228 129 294 151 330C171 363 201 401 241 401C275 401 302 384 325 356C332 347 339 344 348 348C373 360 383 381 383 397Z" id="g113-100"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="406" vert-adv-y="406"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,9.78,-5.741)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z" id="g50-50"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,8.671,3.784)"><path d="M485 418C485 434 469 451 441 451C389 451 312 387 255 335C221 304 194 278 159 242H157L259 678C264 698 264 710 255 710C242 710 183 681 96 673L90 643L128 642C165 641 171 640 162 602L24 -5L31 -12C51 -4 81 4 110 9L145 181C154 195 180 220 205 242C233 170 263 106 291 53C318 1 335 -12 360 -12C383 -12 425 0 483 82L463 105C437 79 411 57 400 57C388 57 378 68 355 110C329 156 288 244 268 298C299 333 355 376 405 376C426 376 440 373 448 368C453 365 465 368 468 373C477 386 485 405 485 418Z" id="g50-108"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="509" vert-adv-y="509"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,14.727,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z" id="g113-42"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="346" vert-adv-y="346"></glyph.data></g></svg>, (B) plots with <svg height="15.535pt" id="M228" style="vertical-align:-3.9436pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -11.5914 19.3736 15.535" width="19.3736pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z" id="g113-41"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="346" vert-adv-y="346"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,4.498,0)"><path d="M383 397C383 424 344 448 299 448C244 448 172 409 132 375C66 319 23 227 23 146C23 42 74 -12 146 -12C208 -12 298 30 359 103L343 124C315 95 248 48 192 48C145 48 111 85 111 163C111 228 129 294 151 330C171 363 201 401 241 401C275 401 302 384 325 356C332 347 339 344 348 348C373 360 383 381 383 397Z" id="g113-100"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="406" vert-adv-y="406"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,9.78,-5.741)"><path d="M290 377C321 398 342 415 358 430C378 450 389 473 389 502C389 578 329 635 238 635H237C184 635 137 610 109 578L64 515L88 493C112 529 154 573 208 573S303 542 303 482C303 409 233 370 141 341L149 308C165 313 190 319 215 319C272 319 341 283 341 193C342 98 292 43 222 43C163 43 122 72 96 94C88 101 79 100 70 94C61 87 47 73 46 60C44 47 48 37 62 23C76 10 118 -12 165 -12C238 -12 430 62 430 223C430 297 379 359 290 375V377Z" id="g50-52"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,8.671,3.784)"><path d="M485 418C485 434 469 451 441 451C389 451 312 387 255 335C221 304 194 278 159 242H157L259 678C264 698 264 710 255 710C242 710 183 681 96 673L90 643L128 642C165 641 171 640 162 602L24 -5L31 -12C51 -4 81 4 110 9L145 181C154 195 180 220 205 242C233 170 263 106 291 53C318 1 335 -12 360 -12C383 -12 425 0 483 82L463 105C437 79 411 57 400 57C388 57 378 68 355 110C329 156 288 244 268 298C299 333 355 376 405 376C426 376 440 373 448 368C453 365 465 368 468 373C477 386 485 405 485 418Z" id="g50-108"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="509" vert-adv-y="509"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,14.727,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z" id="g113-42"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="346" vert-adv-y="346"></glyph.data></g></svg> and (C) plots with <svg height="17.7715pt" id="M229" style="vertical-align:-4.6847pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -13.0868 24.5891 17.7715" width="24.5891pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z" id="g113-41"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="346" vert-adv-y="346"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,4.498,0)"><path d="M383 397C383 424 344 448 299 448C244 448 172 409 132 375C66 319 23 227 23 146C23 42 74 -12 146 -12C208 -12 298 30 359 103L343 124C315 95 248 48 192 48C145 48 111 85 111 163C111 228 129 294 151 330C171 363 201 401 241 401C275 401 302 384 325 356C332 347 339 344 348 348C373 360 383 381 383 397Z" id="g113-100"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="406" vert-adv-y="406"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,9.78,-6.671)"><path d="M522 0V30C462 35 455 41 455 106V280C455 397 397 451 314 451C262 451 206 414 171 379V710C131 698 69 682 20 675V647C87 642 90 637 90 574V106C90 41 80 35 20 30V0H236V30C176 35 171 43 171 106V339C198 371 237 391 276 391C341 391 374 350 374 269V106C374 43 367 35 308 30V0H522Z" id="g58-102"></path><glyph.data ascent="1007" descent="-369" horiz-adv-x="544" vert-adv-y="544"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,14.548,-6.671)"><path d="M173 382V461C125 442 68 425 25 418V390C88 382 92 382 92 317V-127C92 -191 84 -199 18 -204V-235H259V-204C180 -196 173 -192 173 -120V7C188 -1 212 -11 243 -12C375 12 495 109 495 261C495 361 427 451 316 451C303 451 283 446 266 435L173 382ZM173 345C200 365 243 388 274 388C346 388 409 329 409 222C409 111 353 40 266 40C231 40 196 56 173 79V345Z" id="g58-110"></path><glyph.data ascent="1007" descent="-369" horiz-adv-x="534" vert-adv-y="534"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,8.671,4.525)"><path d="M485 418C485 434 469 451 441 451C389 451 312 387 255 335C221 304 194 278 159 242H157L259 678C264 698 264 710 255 710C242 710 183 681 96 673L90 643L128 642C165 641 171 640 162 602L24 -5L31 -12C51 -4 81 4 110 9L145 181C154 195 180 220 205 242C233 170 263 106 291 53C318 1 335 -12 360 -12C383 -12 425 0 483 82L463 105C437 79 411 57 400 57C388 57 378 68 355 110C329 156 288 244 268 298C299 333 355 376 405 376C426 376 440 373 448 368C453 365 465 368 468 373C477 386 485 405 485 418Z" id="g50-108"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="509" vert-adv-y="509"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,19.942,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z" id="g113-42"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="346" vert-adv-y="346"></glyph.data></g></svg>. The parameters involved in this figure are presented in Tables <a href="../tab1/">1</a> and <a href="../tab2/">2</a>.</div>

Journal of Probability and Statistics

fig3

Figure 3

Figure 3: Parameter Estimation in Mean Reversion Processes with Deterministic Long-Term Trend 