Parameter Estimation in Mean Reversion Processes with Deterministic Long-Term Trend

Results of RMS error for the estimation and reestimation of <svg height="12.7178pt" id="M317" style="vertical-align:-3.42947pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 20.821 12.7178" width="20.821pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M538 96L524 119C492 88 454 63 446 63C439 63 434 70 440 101C463 223 491 341 518 448H508L433 422L401 276C355 192 240 56 188 56C163 56 154 89 163 133C184 233 207 338 235 443L230 448L152 424L58 17C40 -60 23 -143 23 -185C23 -241 42 -261 63 -261C92 -261 117 -241 125 -227L124 -221C109 -209 89 -165 89 -103C89 -55 96 -13 105 26H107C121 -3 134 -12 151 -12C172 -12 194 -5 221 16C279 61 330 124 384 194H386C381 159 377 141 368 105C343 3 363 -12 383 -12C416 -12 486 35 538 96Z" id="g113-234"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="555" vert-adv-y="555"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,7.216,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z" id="g113-41"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="346" vert-adv-y="346"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,11.714,0)"><path d="M324 430H196L233 583L223 592L145 529L120 430H54L29 396L31 388H111L56 126C33 15 54 -12 77 -12C137 -12 214 57 250 95L233 119C208 92 155 59 138 59C126 59 120 70 131 125L186 390L298 394L324 430Z" id="g113-117"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="341" vert-adv-y="341"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,16.148,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z" id="g113-42"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="346" vert-adv-y="346"></glyph.data></g></svg>: case 1 sinusoidal trend and case 2 parabolic trend.

Journal of Probability and Statistics

tab5

Table 5

Table 5: Parameter Estimation in Mean Reversion Processes with Deterministic Long-Term Trend 