Research Article
Forecasting of Global Market Prices of Major Financial Instruments
Table 9
Parameter estimation of GARCH (1,1).
| Variable | Model | Parameters | S.E. | value |
| AD | GARCH (1,1) | μ 7.553e − 01 | 5.748e − 04 | <0.001 | α0 1.893e − 05 | 4.816e − 06 | <0.001 | α1 1.000e + 00 | 1.368e − 01 | <0.001 | β1 8.723e − 02 | 1.025e + 00 | 0.395 |
| C | GARCH (1,1) | μ 470.35570 | 0.57851 | <0.001 | α0 9.41034 | 3.50690 | 0.00729 | α1 0.94295 | 0.13596 | <0.001 | β1 0.23805 | 0.08988 | 0.00808 |
| CL | GARCH (1,2) | μ 51.25441 | 0.23806 | <0.001 | α0 0.86055 | 0.31380 | 0.0061 | α1 1.00000 | 0.23861 | <0.001 | β1 0.06070 | 0.33109 | 0.8545 | β2 0.05016 | 0.16690 | 0.7638 |
| ES | GARCH (1,2) | μ 2.061e + 03 | 1.844e + 00 | <0.001 | α0 1.379e + 02 | 3.458e + 01 | <0.001 | α1 1.000e + 00 | 1.332e − 01 | <0.001 | β1 1.290e − 01 | 1.622e − 01 | 0.426 | β2 2.367e − 02 | 9.275e − 02 | 0.799 |
| FC | GARCH (1,1) | μ 146.1326 | 0.3324 | <0.001 | α0 2.0045 | 0.8187 | 0.0144 | α1 1.0000 | 0.1376 | <0.001 | β1 0.1315 | 0.1103 | 0.2333 |
| GC | GARCH (3,4) | μ 1.310e + 03 | 2.798e + 00 | <0.001 | α0 9.636e + 01 | 2.554e + 01 | 0.000162 | α1 1.000e + 00 | 1.319e − 01 | <0.001 | α2 7.743e − 02 | 1.384e − 01 | 0.575965 | α3 1.000e − 08 | 6531e − 02 | 1.000000 | β1 1.000e − 08 | 8.419e − 02 | 1.000000 | β2 1.000e − 08 | NA | NA | β3 1.000e − 08 | NA | NA | β4 1.676e − 02 | 2.036e − 02 | 0.410364 |
| KC | GARCH (1,1) | μ 166.6749 | 0.4603 | <0.001 | α0 4.1971 | 1.4602 | 0.00405 | α1 1.0000 | 0.1371 | <0.001 | β1 0.1475 | 0.1025 | 0.15036 |
| US | GARCH (1,1) | μ 146.2089 | 0.3625 | <0.001 | α0 0.7346 | 0.2514 | 0.00347 | α1 1.0000 | 0.1761 | <0.001 | β1 0.1274 | 0.1403 | 0.36393 |
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