Modeling of the COVID-19 Cases in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries Using ARIMA and MA-ARIMA Models

Table 3

The best ARIMA model fitting confirmed, recovery, and death cases and their corresponding RMSE, MAPE, and AIC.

Country	Confirmed cases			Recovery cases			Death cases
	ARIMA (p,d,q)	RMSE MAPE	AIC	ARIMA (p,d,q)	RMSE MAPE	AIC	ARIMA (p,d,q)	RMSE MAPE	AIC
KSA	(2,1,3)	21.89 11.74	4356.60	(2,1,3)	23.01 8.78	5227.94	(1,1,2)	1.40 26.05	1720.18
UAE	(4,1,0)	283.70 7.81	4600.73	(0,1,1)	530.67 18.01	5142.44	(0,1,1)	1.786 28.26	1325.19
Kuwait	(3,1,2)	74.66 14.28	4229.79	(0,1,1)	71.48 15.32	4126.95	(2,1,3)	2.872 24.29	1308.48
Qatar	(2,1,3)	32.31 11.05	4040.98	(1,1,2)	29.66 16.68	4816.27	(1,0,1)	0.432 NA	1027.59
Bahrain	(3,1,0)	63.18 14.74	4044.00	(1,1,2)	62.22 18.13	4180.72	(0,1,1)	0.845 NA	1083.89
Oman	(2,1,2)	46.30 20.75	4347.36	(2,1,3)	89.19 48.07	3961.79	(0,1,1)	1.199 NA	1534.81