Modeling of the COVID-19 Cases in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries Using ARIMA and MA-ARIMA Models

Table 4

The best k^th SMA-ARIMA models for forecasting the confirmed, recovery, and death cases and their corresponding RMSE, MAPE, and AIC in each country.

Country	Confirmed cases			Recovery cases			Death cases
	k^th SMA-ARIMA (p,d,q)	RMSE; MAPE	AIC	k^th SMA-ARIMA (p,d,q)	RMSE; MAPE	AIC	k^th SMA-ARIMA (p,d,q)	RMSE; MAPE	AIC
KSA	2-(2,1,3)	23.58; 11.19	3890.60	3-(1,1,1)	30.27; 11.99	4662.50	2-(3,1,1)	1.34; 24.28	1259.24
UAE	4-(2,1,3)	295.77; 7.72	3589.81	4-(0,1,4)	509.42; 17.89	4100.91	3-(0,1,3)	1.441; 25.77	518.31
Kuwait	3-(0,1,3)	76.14; 14.78	3479.61	3-(0,1,3)	69.75; 14.97	3376.99	3-(1,1,3)	0.929; NA	569.22
Qatar	3-(1,1,4)	32.70; 11.43	3287.71	3-(3,1,1)	29.56; 15.96	4312.21	2-(0,1,2)	0.427; NA	563.58
Bahrain	4-(2,1,3)	61.87; 14.47	3095.17	3-(1,1,4)	61.75; 18.64	3416.48	3-(0,1,3)	0.823; NA	330.74
Oman	4-(0,1,4)	40.20; 19.21	3391.31	2-(1,1,3)	89.62; 48.76	3993.75	3-(0,1,3)	1.158; NA	791.56