Modeling of the COVID-19 Cases in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries Using ARIMA and MA-ARIMA Models

Table 5

The best k^th WMA-ARIMA models for forecasting the confirmed, recovery, and death cases and their corresponding RMSE, MAPE, and AIC in each country.

Country	Confirmed cases			Recovery cases			Death cases
	k^th WMA-ARIMA (p,d,q)	RMSE; MAPE	AIC	k^th WMA-ARIMA (p,d,q)	RMSE; MAPE	AIC	k^th WMA-ARIMA (p,d,q)	RMSE; MAPE	AIC
KSA	2-(2,1,3)	21.42; 11.27	4074..51	3-(2,1,2)	22.50; 8.79	4736.36	4-(0,1,2)	1.36; 25.92	1102.31
UAE	5-(2,1,3)	270.89; 7.79	3728.79	4-(0,1,4)	529.39; 17.93	4040.00	3-(2,1,2)	1.73; 25.95	809.55
Kuwait	4-(3,1,2)	67.24; 12.71	3555.13	4-(3,1,2)	70.26; 15.46	3481.5	4-(2,1,3)	0.881; NA	684.22
Qatar	2-(1,1,3)	32.38; 11.07	3753.85	3-(2,1,3)	26.92; 14.05	4130.71	3-(0,1,3)	0.426; NA	558.04
Bahrain	3-(3,1,1)	62.52; 14.35	3549.59	2-(1,1,3)	62.25; 18.24	3891.99	2-(2,1,3)	0.837; NA	802.54
Oman	4-(2,1,2)	39.80; 19.01	4619.96	4-(2,1,2)	86.85; 46.49	3829.60	3-(1,1,3)	1.203; NA	1053.01