Modeling of the COVID-19 Cases in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries Using ARIMA and MA-ARIMA Models

Table 6

The best k^th EWMA-ARIMA models for forecasting the confirmed, recovery, and death cases and their corresponding RMSE, MAPE, and AIC in each country.

Country	Confirmed cases			Recovery cases			Death cases
	k^th EWMA-ARIMA (p,d,q)	RMSE; MAPE	AIC	k^th EWMA-ARIMA (p,d,q)	RMSE; MAPE	AIC	k^th EWMA-ARIMA (p,d,q)	RMSE; MAPE	AIC
KSA	3-(3,1,2)	21.54; 11.46	3960.77	5-(2,1,3)	22.73; 8.79	4534.14	5-(2,1,2)	1.37; 25.67	1068.84
UAE	5-(2,1,3)	264.67; 7.54	3823.02	5-(2,1,3)	519.54; 18.04	4394.61	4-(0,1,4)	1.760; 26.93	751.94
Kuwait	2-(2,1,2)	73.60; 14.22	4019.70	3-(2,1,2)	70.44; 14.80	3731.64	4-(2,1,2)	0.882; NA	782.64
Qatar	2-(1,1,3)	32.30; 11.04	3833.43	2-(2,1,2)	30.27; 16.86	4602.22	3-(1,1,1)	0.430; NA	646.16
Bahrain	5-(4,1,1)	61.21; 13.83	3351.47	3-(3,1,2)	63.38; 18.87	3764.46	5-(1,1,1)	0.849; NA	429.42
Oman	2-(1,1,2)	40.74; 17.60	4141.33	2-(1,1,3)	86.71; 46.50	4261.73	4-(1,1,1)	1.192; NA	998.80