Modeling of the COVID-19 Cases in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries Using ARIMA and MA-ARIMA Models

Table 7

The best models for forecasting the confirmed, recovery, and death cases among the classical ARIMA and k^th MA-ARIMA in each country.

Country	Confirmed cases		Recovery cases		Death cases
	Model	RMSE; MAPE	Model	RMSE; MAPE	Model	RMSE; MAPE
KSA	2^nd WMA-ARIMA (2,1,3)	21.42; 11.27	3^rd WMA-ARIMA (2,1,2)	22.50; 8.79	2^nd SMA-ARIMA (3,1,1)	1.34; 24.28
UAE	5^th EWMA-ARIMA (2,1,3)	264.67; 7.54	4^th SMA-ARIMA (0,1,4)	509.42; 17.89	3^rd SMA-ARIMA (0,1,3)	1.441; 25.77
Kuwait	4^th WMA-ARIMA (3,1,2)	67.24; 12.71	3^rd SMA-ARIMA (0,1,3)	69.75; 14.97	4^th WMA-ARIMA (2,1,3)	0.881; NA
Qatar	2^nd EWMA-ARIMA (1,1,3)	32.30; 11.04	3^rd WMA-ARIMA (2,1,3)	26.92; 14.05	3^rd WMA-ARIMA (0,1,3)	0.426
Bahrain	5^th EWMA-ARIMA (4,1,1)	61.21; 13.83	3^rd SMA-ARIMA (1,1,4)	61.75; 18.64	3^rd SMA-ARIMA (0,1,3)	0.823; NA
Oman	4^th WMA-ARIMA (2,1,2)	39.80; 19.01	4^th WMA-ARIMA (2,1,2)	86.85; 46.49	3^rd SMA-ARIMA (0,1,3)	1.203; NA