Modeling of the COVID-19 Cases in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries Using ARIMA and MA-ARIMA Models

Table 8

The Box–Ljung test applied for the best models among ARIMA and k^th MA-ARIMA models for forecasting the confirmed, recovery, and death cases in each country.

Country	Confirmed cases			Recovered cases			Death cases
	Model	Q	p value	Model	Q	p value	Model	Q	p value
KSA	2^nd WMA-ARIMA (2,1,3)	39.46	0.116	3^rd WMA-ARIMA (2,1,2)	23.57	0.073	2^nd SMA-ARIMA (3,1,1)	26.33	0.092
UAE	5^th EWMA-ARIMA (2,1,3)	69.09	< 0.001	4^th SMA-ARIMA (0,1,4)	29.81	0.475	3^rd SMA-ARIMA (0,1,3)	27.31	0.607
Kuwait	4^th WMA-ARIMA (3,1,2)	37.59	0.161	3^rd SMA-ARIMA (0,1,3)	30.28	0.451	4^th WMA-ARIMA (2,1,3)	31.36	0.40
Qatar	2^nd EWMA-ARIMA (1,1,3)	78.33	< 0.001	3^rd WMA-ARIMA (2,1,3)	20.11	0.914	3^rd WMA-ARIMA (0,1,3)	21.52	0.870
Bahrain	5^th EWMA-ARIMA (4,1,1)	23.30	0.803	3^rd SMA-ARIMA (1,1,4)	51.62	0.103	3^rd SMA-ARIMA (0,1,3)	25.29	0.191
Oman	4^th WMA-ARIMA (2,1,2)	31.05	0.413	4^th WMA-ARIMA (2,1,2)	81.84	<0.001	3^rd SMA-ARIMA (0,1,3)	16.04	0.982