Forecasting the COVID-19 Diffusion in Italy and the Related Occupancy of Intensive Care Units

Table 1

10-step-ahead predictions for the variable (number of persons tested positive).

	Italy
	29 March	66504	71586	76647	6911
30 March	69753	73409	79373	12785.3
31 March	70760	75696	82773	16989.7
1 April	70817	76723	86430	20353.4
2 April	69925	77811	90800	28812.7
3 April	69309	76952	96806	35454.1
4 April	68480	75927	102946	42234.7
5 April	66531	74860	109265	58238.4
6 April	64940	75006	117550	72145.3
7 April	60197	74875	126205	91586.4
Lombardia
29 March	22538	25214	26384	5001.4
30 March	23296	25456	26790	5010.8
31 March	23969	25792	27565	5167.0
1 April	23864	25842	27634	5301.3
2 April	23662	25963	28230	6248.7
3 April	23209	25675	28342	7123.5
4 April	22709	25717	28781	8307.2
5 April	21964	25067	29524	9972.6
6 April	20802	24431	30131	12368.5
7 April	19619	23752	30628	14375.8
Piedmont
29 March	6115	6635	7017	1136.4
30 March	6264	6610	7193	1253.0
31 March	6209	6568	7481	1759.2
1 April	6079	6401	7942	2531.6
2 April	5837	6152	8271	3357.0
3 April	5502	5898	8590	4025.1
4 April	5134	5566	8753	4985.6
5 April	4666	5135	8995	5893.4
6 April	4178	4732	9279	6809.7
7 April	3707	4289	9417	7986.3
Liguria
29 March	2026	2062	2217	220.9
30 March	2007	2048	2242	299.7
31 March	1955	2019	2361	476.0
1 April	1891	1969	2416	634.1
2 April	1804	1900	2515	803.5
3 April	1701	1805	2580	988.9
4 April	1589	1709	2645	1178.1
5 April	1470	1590	2748	1445.7
6 April	1344	1440	2917	1878.3
7 April	1214	1311	3090	2158.2
Valle d’Aosta
29 March	404	480	512	111.7
30 March	410	491	524	121.6
31 March	417	501	546	142.2
1 April	420	500	551	146.0
2 April	411	494	551	152.3
3 April	382	483	542	179.3
4 April	359	462	526	188.9
5 April	339	443	541	222.6
6 April	301	412	530	254.5
7 April	267	383	516	280.3
Veneto
29 March	6346	7145	7559	1730.7
30 March	6569	7213	7749	1745.4
31 March	6706	7431	8067	1888.1
1 April	6721	7463	8144	2031.5
2 April	6535	7539	8415	2443.8
3 April	6414	7469	8758	3121.9
4 April	6073	7374	9168	4423.1
5 April	5703	7182	9214	4957.7
6 April	5303	6842	9593	6023.7
7 April	4798	6537	10203	7743.4
Friuli Venezia Giulia
29 March	1029	1124	1167	180.2
30 March	1083	1138	1195	141.6
31 March	1100	1169	1226	153.6
1 April	1104	1189	1269	211.4
2 April	1109	1212	1267	201.2
3 April	1097	1209	1272	207.6
4 April	1060	1230	1287	287.8
5 April	1035	1203	1305	321.4
6 April	1005	1202	1333	413.2
7 April	976	1208	1343	445.7
Emilia-Romagna
29 March	9163	10500	11265	2912.4
30 March	9464	10975	11717	3323.8
31 March	9535	11360	12176	3591.6
1 April	9587	11613	12562	4123.3
2 April	9476	11815	12954	4783.0
3 April	9276	11943	13291	5547.1
4 April	9002	12132	13539	6471.6
5 April	8528	12244	13720	7240.6
6 April	8034	12125	13995	8173.0
7 April	7311	11966	14189	9017.2
Trentino Alto Adige
29 March	2021	2147	2324	325.1
30 March	2076	2158	2488	426.1
31 March	2114	2124	2617	581.6
1 April	2110	2083	2707	685.9
2 April	2097	1988	2787	761.4
3 April	2064	1868	2764	817.6
4 April	2023	1725	2742	827.9
5 April	1944	1548	2751	902.1
6 April	1851	1373	2718	991.0
7 April	1707	1200	2641	1041.3
Lazio
29 March	2013	2208	2355	429.0
30 March	2160	2244	2436	348.2
31 March	2182	2298	2553	413.7
1 April	2153	2279	2666	612.4
2 April	2161	2256	2785	723.5
3 April	2140	2222	2991	1016.0
4 April	2100	2154	3132	1278.3
5 April	2041	2046	3233	1480.3
6 April	1908	1956	3485	1817.4
7 April	1768	1821	3782	2128.3
Macroarea Center
29 March	6822	7499	7911	1459.1
30 March	7104	7671	8087	1403.7
31 March	7130	7864	8396	1740.8
1 April	7001	7896	8741	2316.0
2 April	6758	7889	8987	3019.6
3 April	6424	7851	9156	3800.7
4 April	6078	7813	9695	5015.6
5 April	5512	7718	10081	5917.4
6 April	4925	7494	10580	7727.4
7 April	4397	7238	10941	9036.2
Campania
29 March	1169	1453	1549	499.7
30 March	1267	1494	1662	513.7
31 March	1293	1527	1747	600.4
1 April	1287	1548	1835	709.3
2 April	1280	1582	1898	817.0
3 April	1252	1619	1953	901.6
4 April	1222	1640	1972	998.3
5 April	1160	1649	2020	1047.3
6 April	1090	1648	2063	1218.5
7 April	994	1645	2145	1418.8
Macroarea South
29 March	4380	5226	5662	1501.9
30 March	4646	5406	5846	1504.8
31 March	4689	5648	6246	1981.0
1 April	4705	5791	6528	2312.2
2 April	4496	5931	6902	3100.9
3 April	4122	6129	7325	3973.6
4 April	3841	6169	7695	4984.0
5 April	3445	6346	8141	6118.4
6 April	2981	6355	8787	7459.2
7 April	2512	6345	9397	8918.4