Adjusted Extreme Conditional Quantile Autoregression with Application to Risk Measurement

<table class="table-group" id="tab2"><tr><td><table class="table"><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="4"><hr/></td></tr><tr class="thead"><td class="align_left">Sample size (<i>n</i>)</td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 43.2865ptpx;"><svg height="9.49473pt" id="M240" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 43.2865 9.49473" width="43.2865pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M475 507C475 612 440 712 326 712C139 712 23 420 23 215C23 96 58 -12 180 -12C369 -12 475 293 475 507ZM391 522C391 486 387 448 379 394H126C155 538 222 677 310 677C386 677 391 571 391 522ZM373 346C344 193 283 22 189 22C126 22 106 114 106 196C106 243 111 293 118 346H373Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.107,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,21.37,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,27.61,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,30.574,0)"><path d="M412 140C382 77 369 73 315 73H129L270 222C362 320 402 379 402 466C402 571 322 635 234 635C177 635 130 609 99 576L42 495L64 475C90 514 133 568 201 568C274 568 318 519 318 435C318 349 255 267 193 193C144 135 87 78 32 23V0H405C417 45 427 89 440 131L412 140Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,36.814,0)"><path d="M153 550H386L412 615L406 623H120L82 318C104 327 142 338 184 338C294 338 347 275 347 187C347 112 305 39 221 39C160 39 119 71 97 89C88 97 80 96 71 90C59 80 50 67 49 57C48 45 52 36 66 23C80 9 123 -12 169 -12C221 -11 288 15 342 59C403 109 431 165 431 225C431 308 366 395 238 395C212 395 165 379 127 364L153 550Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 37.0231ptpx;"><svg height="9.49473pt" id="M241" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 37.0231 9.49473" width="37.0231pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M475 507C475 612 440 712 326 712C139 712 23 420 23 215C23 96 58 -12 180 -12C369 -12 475 293 475 507ZM391 522C391 486 387 448 379 394H126C155 538 222 677 310 677C386 677 391 571 391 522ZM373 346C344 193 283 22 189 22C126 22 106 114 106 196C106 243 111 293 118 346H373Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.107,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,21.37,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,27.61,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,30.574,0)"><path d="M153 550H386L412 615L406 623H120L82 318C104 327 142 338 184 338C294 338 347 275 347 187C347 112 305 39 221 39C160 39 119 71 97 89C88 97 80 96 71 90C59 80 50 67 49 57C48 45 52 36 66 23C80 9 123 -12 169 -12C221 -11 288 15 342 59C403 109 431 165 431 225C431 308 366 395 238 395C212 395 165 379 127 364L153 550Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 43.2865ptpx;"><svg height="9.49473pt" id="M242" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 43.2865 9.49473" width="43.2865pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M475 507C475 612 440 712 326 712C139 712 23 420 23 215C23 96 58 -12 180 -12C369 -12 475 293 475 507ZM391 522C391 486 387 448 379 394H126C155 538 222 677 310 677C386 677 391 571 391 522ZM373 346C344 193 283 22 189 22C126 22 106 114 106 196C106 243 111 293 118 346H373Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.107,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,21.37,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,27.61,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,30.574,0)"><path d="M447 623H65C61 580 56 530 47 475H76C100 541 106 550 172 550H388C308 376 196 170 91 -1L98 -12L172 -2C268 204 360 408 455 611L447 623Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,36.816,0)"><path d="M153 550H386L412 615L406 623H120L82 318C104 327 142 338 184 338C294 338 347 275 347 187C347 112 305 39 221 39C160 39 119 71 97 89C88 97 80 96 71 90C59 80 50 67 49 57C48 45 52 36 66 23C80 9 123 -12 169 -12C221 -11 288 15 342 59C403 109 431 165 431 225C431 308 366 395 238 395C212 395 165 379 127 364L153 550Z"></path></g></svg></span></td></tr><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="4"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">250</td><td class="align_center">0.96844</td><td class="align_center">0.74493</td><td class="align_center">0.62015</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">500</td><td class="align_center">0.79632</td><td class="align_center">0.60788</td><td class="align_center">0.56179</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">1000</td><td class="align_center">0.71974</td><td class="align_center">0.54056</td><td class="align_center">0.53254</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">2000</td><td class="align_center">0.71416</td><td class="align_center">0.49585</td><td class="align_center">0.50037</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">3000</td><td class="align_center">0.69751</td><td class="align_center">0.47862</td><td class="align_center">0.49713</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">4000</td><td class="align_center">0.69608</td><td class="align_center">0.46439</td><td class="align_center">0.48776</td></tr><tr class="table-tr"><td colspan="4"><hr class="tbody-hr"/></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

<div>ARMSE for <svg height="13.5999pt" id="M238" style="vertical-align:-4.35069pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.24921 24.9506 13.5999" width="24.9506pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,1.403,-.222)"><path d="M470 557C393 591 314 624 246 666H224C156 624 76 591 0 557L12 532C86 550 163 573 235 596C309 572 384 550 458 532L470 557Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M538 96L524 119C492 88 454 63 446 63C439 63 434 70 440 101C463 223 491 341 518 448H508L433 422L401 276C355 192 240 56 188 56C163 56 154 89 163 133C184 233 207 338 235 443L230 448L152 424L58 17C40 -60 23 -143 23 -185C23 -241 42 -261 63 -261C92 -261 117 -241 125 -227L124 -221C109 -209 89 -165 89 -103C89 -55 96 -13 105 26H107C121 -3 134 -12 151 -12C172 -12 194 -5 221 16C279 61 330 124 384 194H386C381 159 377 141 368 105C343 3 363 -12 383 -12C416 -12 486 35 538 96Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.89,3.132)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,10.048,3.132)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.205,3.132)"><path d="M482 498C482 606 448 710 328 710C138 710 24 416 24 218C24 99 58 -12 184 -12C373 -12 482 294 482 498ZM395 521C395 483 391 449 383 395H128C158 537 226 671 312 671C388 671 395 566 395 521ZM375 342C348 190 284 25 192 25C128 25 109 116 109 199C109 243 112 292 121 342H375Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,16.81,3.132)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,18.967,3.132)"><path d="M558 106L533 129C501 84 476 67 464 67C446 67 435 116 414 239C457 297 508 367 550 440L539 451L484 438C458 390 429 338 404 300H402C375 407 351 451 285 451C168 451 24 312 24 153C24 56 66 -12 132 -12C206 -12 284 64 345 156H347C367 24 386 -12 422 -12C457 -12 503 7 558 106ZM338 206C272 99 215 56 173 56C140 56 116 96 116 170C116 303 194 405 255 405C304 405 324 299 338 206Z"></path></g></svg> for <span class="nowrap"><svg height="8.85534pt" id="M239" style="vertical-align:-0.4673595pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.38798 44.8263 8.85534" width="44.8263pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M545 106L524 126C493 85 467 65 455 65C438 65 427 113 405 238C448 295 498 362 543 439L533 448L478 435C453 386 423 331 398 295H395C370 404 347 448 282 448C169 448 23 309 23 153C23 54 65 -12 128 -12C203 -12 283 70 339 155H341C360 29 380 -12 411 -12C444 -12 491 11 545 106ZM333 204C265 95 210 54 169 54C137 54 113 96 113 171C113 302 191 405 252 405C301 405 318 306 333 204Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,11.017,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,22.28,0)"><path d="M244 635C114 635 38 519 38 422C38 317 111 240 217 240C236 240 255 244 277 256L345 292C311 140 203 39 59 15L64 -15C89 -15 150 -5 204 17C339 72 440 202 440 386C440 521 368 635 244 635ZM228 602C326 602 352 479 352 390C352 370 351 347 348 324C327 308 293 296 258 296C174 296 124 369 124 458C124 517 152 602 228 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,28.521,0)"><path d="M153 550H386L412 615L406 623H120L82 318C104 327 142 338 184 338C294 338 347 275 347 187C347 112 305 39 221 39C160 39 119 71 97 89C88 97 80 96 71 90C59 80 50 67 49 57C48 45 52 36 66 23C80 9 123 -12 169 -12C221 -11 288 15 342 59C403 109 431 165 431 225C431 308 366 395 238 395C212 395 165 379 127 364L153 550Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,34.761,0)"><path d="M594 629L561 652L159 -9L190 -32L594 629ZM194 635C92 635 49 534 49 453C49 374 92 272 193 272C295 272 338 374 338 454S295 635 194 635ZM193 605C257 605 265 504 265 453C265 405 257 302 194 302C133 302 122 403 122 454S133 605 193 605ZM567 351C465 351 421 250 421 169C421 90 465 -12 566 -12S710 90 710 170S667 351 567 351ZM566 322C628 322 637 221 637 169C637 121 628 18 567 18S494 119 494 170C494 223 506 322 566 322Z"></path></g></svg>.</span></div>

Journal of Probability and Statistics

tab2

Table 2

Table 2: Adjusted Extreme Conditional Quantile Autoregression with Application to Risk Measurement 