Research Article
Forecasting of Sporadic Demand Patterns with Seasonality and Trend Components: An Empirical Comparison between Holt-Winters and (S)ARIMA Methods
Table 3
Comparison between (S)ARIMA and HW based on MAD/.
| | Series | Group |
MAD/ 5 time periods ahead |
MAD/ 12 time periods ahead | | (S)ARIMA | HW | (S)ARIMA | HW |
| | s1 | 1 | 4.9% | 4.9% | 9.3% | 8.9% | | s2 | 9.7% | 14.2% | 13.8% | 13.8% | | s3 | 13.2% | 11% | 33.5% | 21.5% | | s4 | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 21.1% | | s5 | 2.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 7.6% | | s6 | 1.4% | 1.8% | 4.1% | 2.8% | | s7 | 1.4% | 0.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% |
| | s8 | 2 | 14.9% | 21.6% | 35% | 40.9% | | s9 | 8.3% | 66.7% | 53.6% | 92.9% | | s10 | 5.3% | 26.7% | 16.5% | 32.5% | | s11 | 4.0% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 24.6% | | s12 | 10.7% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 21.7% |
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