Mathematical Problems in Engineering / 2010 / Article / Tab 3

Research Article

Forecasting of Sporadic Demand Patterns with Seasonality and Trend Components: An Empirical Comparison between Holt-Winters and (S)ARIMA Methods

Table 3

Comparison between (S)ARIMA and HW based on MAD/A.

SeriesGroup MAD/A 5 time periods ahead MAD/A 12 time periods ahead
(S)ARIMAHW(S)ARIMAHW

s114.9%4.9%9.3%8.9%
s29.7%14.2%13.8%13.8%
s313.2%11%33.5%21.5%
s47.3%6.9%8.9%21.1%
s52.3%4.8%4.7%7.6%
s61.4%1.8%4.1%2.8%
s71.4%0.2%5.3%5.5%

s8214.9%21.6%35%40.9%
s98.3%66.7%53.6%92.9%
s105.3%26.7%16.5%32.5%
s114.0%11.1%8.5%24.6%
s1210.7%10.4%10.4%21.7%

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