Research Article
Forecasting of Sporadic Demand Patterns with Seasonality and Trend Components: An Empirical Comparison between Holt-Winters and (S)ARIMA Methods
Table 5
Comparison between (S)ARIMA and HW based on ME/.
| | Series | Group |
ME/ 5 time periods ahead |
ME/ 12 time periods ahead | | (S)ARIMA | HW | (S)ARIMA | HW |
| | s1 | 1 | 2.9% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | | s2 | 4.4% | 1.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | | s3 | 2.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 18.7% | | s4 | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 9.5% | | s5 | 1.7% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 5.1% | | s6 | 0.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.3% | | s7 | 1.1% | 0.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% |
| | s8 | 2 | 1.0% | 0.6% | 32.0% | 32.8% | | s9 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 25.0% | 64.3% | | s10 | 0.8% | 13.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | | s11 | 0.9% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 24.6% | | s12 | 7.9% | 0.4% | 4.5% | 21.7% |
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