Figure 3: Conditional estimates during the first iteration of Generalised Filtering. This format will be used in subsequent figures and summarizes the predictions and conditional densities on the states of a hierarchical dynamic model. The first (upper left) panel shows the predicted response (coloured lines) and the error (red lines) on this response (their sum corresponds to observed data). For the hidden states (upper right) and causes (lower left) the conditional mode is depicted by a blue line and the 90% conditional confidence intervals (regions) by the grey area. The lower right panels show the optimisation of the conditional means of the free parameters (above) and log-precisions (below) as a function of time.