A Trend-Switching Financial Time Series Model with Level-Duration Dependence

<table class="table-group" id="tab6"><tr><td><table class="table"><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="5"><hr/></td></tr><tr class="thead"><td align="left"> </td><td align="center"> </td><td align="center"> </td><td align="center">Forecast <svg height="19.2875" id="M374" style="vertical-align:-3.3907pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 35.674999 19.2875" width="35.674999" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,2.487,11.388)"><path d="M470 557l-12 -25q-103 25 -223 64q-128 -41 -223 -64l-12 25q172 77 224 109h22q57 -35 224 -109z" id="xF5C01"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,15)"><path d="M627 18l-10 -26q-79 6 -116 27t-69 76q-41 71 -71 138q-13 29 -27.5 39t-42.5 10h-46l-27 -145q-13 -74 -2.5 -88.5t78.5 -20.5l-6 -28h-271l5 28q66 6 82.5 21.5t30.5 87.5l71 387q12 66 2 78.5t-77 19.5l8 28h233q102 0 147 -29q65 -43 65 -129q0 -69 -45.5 -117
t-115.5 -72q40 -86 66 -133q39 -68 65 -101q28 -37 73 -51zM491 483q0 67 -33.5 101t-91.5 34q-35 0 -51 -10q-13 -8 -20 -48l-45 -245h49q71 0 113 28q79 52 79 140z" id="x1D445"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,11.013,19.088)"><path d="M324 430l-26 -36l-112 -4l-55 -265q-13 -66 7 -66q13 0 44.5 20t50.5 40l17 -24q-38 -40 -85.5 -73.5t-87.5 -33.5q-50 0 -21 138l55 262h-80l-2 8l25 34h66l25 99l78 63l10 -9l-37 -153h128z" id="x1D461"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,15.687,15)"><path d="M300 -147l-18 -23q-106 71 -159 185.5t-53 254.5v1q0 139 53 252.5t159 186.5l18 -24q-74 -62 -115.5 -173.5t-41.5 -242.5q0 -130 41.5 -242.5t115.5 -174.5z" id="x28"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,21.569,15)"><path d="M384 0h-275v27q67 5 81.5 18.5t14.5 68.5v385q0 38 -7.5 47.5t-40.5 10.5l-48 2v24q85 15 178 52v-521q0 -55 14.5 -68.5t82.5 -18.5v-27z" id="x31"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,29.728,15)"><path d="M275 270q0 -296 -211 -440l-19 23q75 62 116.5 174t41.5 243t-42 243t-116 173l19 24q211 -144 211 -440z" id="x29"></path></g>
</svg></td><td align="center"> </td></tr><tr class="thead"><td align="left"> </td><td align="center"> </td><td align="center">Up</td><td align="center">Down</td><td align="center">Total</td></tr><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="5"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td align="left"> </td><td align="center">Up</td><td align="center"><span style="width: 29.525px;"><svg height="15.25" id="M375" style="vertical-align:-3.27605pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 29.525 15.25" width="29.525" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,11.112)"><path d="M998 650l-8 -28q-71 -4 -86 -16t-22 -69l-50 -397q-3 -28 -4.5 -44t2 -29t6.5 -18.5t17 -10.5t24.5 -6.5t37.5 -3.5l-8 -28h-271l7 28q63 6 78 22t25 90l60 415h-2l-353 -552h-23l-130 536h-2l-70 -254q-44 -158 -47 -188q-5 -38 9 -51t71 -18l-6 -28h-241l8 28
q45 4 67 18.5t35 45.5q16 38 74 233l52 173q24 79 11.5 98t-89.5 26l6 28h177l136 -508l337 508h172z" id="x1D440"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,17.412,15.187)"><path d="M384 0h-275v27q67 5 81.5 18.5t14.5 68.5v385q0 38 -7.5 47.5t-40.5 10.5l-48 2v24q85 15 178 52v-521q0 -55 14.5 -68.5t82.5 -18.5v-27z" id="x31"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,23.124,15.187)"><path d="M384 0h-275v27q67 5 81.5 18.5t14.5 68.5v385q0 38 -7.5 47.5t-40.5 10.5l-48 2v24q85 15 178 52v-521q0 -55 14.5 -68.5t82.5 -18.5v-27z" id="x31"></path></g>
</svg></span></td><td align="center"><span style="width: 29.525px;"><svg height="15.25" id="M376" style="vertical-align:-3.27605pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 29.525 15.25" width="29.525" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,11.112)"><path d="M998 650l-8 -28q-71 -4 -86 -16t-22 -69l-50 -397q-3 -28 -4.5 -44t2 -29t6.5 -18.5t17 -10.5t24.5 -6.5t37.5 -3.5l-8 -28h-271l7 28q63 6 78 22t25 90l60 415h-2l-353 -552h-23l-130 536h-2l-70 -254q-44 -158 -47 -188q-5 -38 9 -51t71 -18l-6 -28h-241l8 28
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<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,17.412,15.187)"><path d="M384 0h-275v27q67 5 81.5 18.5t14.5 68.5v385q0 38 -7.5 47.5t-40.5 10.5l-48 2v24q85 15 178 52v-521q0 -55 14.5 -68.5t82.5 -18.5v-27z" id="x31"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,23.124,15.187)"><path d="M412 140l28 -9q0 -2 -35 -131h-373v23q112 112 161 170q59 70 92 127t33 115q0 63 -31 98t-86 35q-75 0 -137 -93l-22 20l57 81q55 59 135 59q69 0 118.5 -46.5t49.5 -122.5q0 -62 -29.5 -114t-102.5 -130l-141 -149h186q42 0 58.5 10.5t38.5 56.5z" id="x32"></path></g>
</svg></span></td><td align="center"><span style="width: 29.525px;"><svg height="15.4" id="M377" style="vertical-align:-3.3907pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 29.525 15.4" width="29.525" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,11.112)"><path d="M998 650l-8 -28q-71 -4 -86 -16t-22 -69l-50 -397q-3 -28 -4.5 -44t2 -29t6.5 -18.5t17 -10.5t24.5 -6.5t37.5 -3.5l-8 -28h-271l7 28q63 6 78 22t25 90l60 415h-2l-353 -552h-23l-130 536h-2l-70 -254q-44 -158 -47 -188q-5 -38 9 -51t71 -18l-6 -28h-241l8 28
q45 4 67 18.5t35 45.5q16 38 74 233l52 173q24 79 11.5 98t-89.5 26l6 28h177l136 -508l337 508h172z" id="x1D440"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,17.412,15.187)"><path d="M384 0h-275v27q67 5 81.5 18.5t14.5 68.5v385q0 38 -7.5 47.5t-40.5 10.5l-48 2v24q85 15 178 52v-521q0 -55 14.5 -68.5t82.5 -18.5v-27z" id="x31"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,23.124,15.187)"><path d="M241 635q53 0 94 -28.5t63.5 -76t33.5 -102.5t11 -116q0 -58 -11 -112.5t-34 -103.5t-63.5 -78.5t-94.5 -29.5t-95 28t-64.5 75t-34.5 102.5t-11 118.5q0 58 11.5 112.5t34.5 103t64.5 78t95.5 29.5zM238 602q-32 0 -55.5 -25t-35.5 -68t-17.5 -91t-5.5 -105
q0 -76 10 -138.5t37 -107.5t69 -45q32 0 55.5 25t35.5 68.5t17.5 91.5t5.5 105t-5.5 105.5t-18 92t-36 68t-56.5 24.5z" id="x30"></path></g>
</svg></span></td></tr><tr><td align="left">Trend <svg height="18.862499" id="M378" style="vertical-align:-3.3907pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 35.674999 18.862499" width="35.674999" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,2.487,10.962)"><path d="M470 619q-46 -79 -133 -79q-39 0 -115 22q-59 16 -92 16q-57 0 -111 -46l-19 23q56 78 138 78q43 0 110 -21q62 -17 100 -17q60 0 103 46z" id="xF5C11"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,14.575)"><path d="M627 18l-10 -26q-79 6 -116 27t-69 76q-41 71 -71 138q-13 29 -27.5 39t-42.5 10h-46l-27 -145q-13 -74 -2.5 -88.5t78.5 -20.5l-6 -28h-271l5 28q66 6 82.5 21.5t30.5 87.5l71 387q12 66 2 78.5t-77 19.5l8 28h233q102 0 147 -29q65 -43 65 -129q0 -69 -45.5 -117
t-115.5 -72q40 -86 66 -133q39 -68 65 -101q28 -37 73 -51zM491 483q0 67 -33.5 101t-91.5 34q-35 0 -51 -10q-13 -8 -20 -48l-45 -245h49q71 0 113 28q79 52 79 140z" id="x1D445"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,11.013,18.662)"><path d="M324 430l-26 -36l-112 -4l-55 -265q-13 -66 7 -66q13 0 44.5 20t50.5 40l17 -24q-38 -40 -85.5 -73.5t-87.5 -33.5q-50 0 -21 138l55 262h-80l-2 8l25 34h66l25 99l78 63l10 -9l-37 -153h128z" id="x1D461"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,15.687,14.575)"><path d="M300 -147l-18 -23q-106 71 -159 185.5t-53 254.5v1q0 139 53 252.5t159 186.5l18 -24q-74 -62 -115.5 -173.5t-41.5 -242.5q0 -130 41.5 -242.5t115.5 -174.5z" id="x28"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,21.569,14.575)"><path d="M384 0h-275v27q67 5 81.5 18.5t14.5 68.5v385q0 38 -7.5 47.5t-40.5 10.5l-48 2v24q85 15 178 52v-521q0 -55 14.5 -68.5t82.5 -18.5v-27z" id="x31"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,29.728,14.575)"><path d="M275 270q0 -296 -211 -440l-19 23q75 62 116.5 174t41.5 243t-42 243t-116 173l19 24q211 -144 211 -440z" id="x29"></path></g>
</svg></td><td align="center">Down</td><td align="center"><span style="width: 29.525px;"><svg height="15.25" id="M379" style="vertical-align:-3.27605pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 29.525 15.25" width="29.525" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,11.112)"><path d="M998 650l-8 -28q-71 -4 -86 -16t-22 -69l-50 -397q-3 -28 -4.5 -44t2 -29t6.5 -18.5t17 -10.5t24.5 -6.5t37.5 -3.5l-8 -28h-271l7 28q63 6 78 22t25 90l60 415h-2l-353 -552h-23l-130 536h-2l-70 -254q-44 -158 -47 -188q-5 -38 9 -51t71 -18l-6 -28h-241l8 28
q45 4 67 18.5t35 45.5q16 38 74 233l52 173q24 79 11.5 98t-89.5 26l6 28h177l136 -508l337 508h172z" id="x1D440"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,17.412,15.187)"><path d="M412 140l28 -9q0 -2 -35 -131h-373v23q112 112 161 170q59 70 92 127t33 115q0 63 -31 98t-86 35q-75 0 -137 -93l-22 20l57 81q55 59 135 59q69 0 118.5 -46.5t49.5 -122.5q0 -62 -29.5 -114t-102.5 -130l-141 -149h186q42 0 58.5 10.5t38.5 56.5z" id="x32"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,23.124,15.187)"><path d="M384 0h-275v27q67 5 81.5 18.5t14.5 68.5v385q0 38 -7.5 47.5t-40.5 10.5l-48 2v24q85 15 178 52v-521q0 -55 14.5 -68.5t82.5 -18.5v-27z" id="x31"></path></g>
</svg></span></td><td align="center"><span style="width: 29.525px;"><svg height="15.25" id="M380" style="vertical-align:-3.27605pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 29.525 15.25" width="29.525" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,11.112)"><path d="M998 650l-8 -28q-71 -4 -86 -16t-22 -69l-50 -397q-3 -28 -4.5 -44t2 -29t6.5 -18.5t17 -10.5t24.5 -6.5t37.5 -3.5l-8 -28h-271l7 28q63 6 78 22t25 90l60 415h-2l-353 -552h-23l-130 536h-2l-70 -254q-44 -158 -47 -188q-5 -38 9 -51t71 -18l-6 -28h-241l8 28
q45 4 67 18.5t35 45.5q16 38 74 233l52 173q24 79 11.5 98t-89.5 26l6 28h177l136 -508l337 508h172z" id="x1D440"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,17.412,15.187)"><path d="M412 140l28 -9q0 -2 -35 -131h-373v23q112 112 161 170q59 70 92 127t33 115q0 63 -31 98t-86 35q-75 0 -137 -93l-22 20l57 81q55 59 135 59q69 0 118.5 -46.5t49.5 -122.5q0 -62 -29.5 -114t-102.5 -130l-141 -149h186q42 0 58.5 10.5t38.5 56.5z" id="x32"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,23.124,15.187)"><path d="M412 140l28 -9q0 -2 -35 -131h-373v23q112 112 161 170q59 70 92 127t33 115q0 63 -31 98t-86 35q-75 0 -137 -93l-22 20l57 81q55 59 135 59q69 0 118.5 -46.5t49.5 -122.5q0 -62 -29.5 -114t-102.5 -130l-141 -149h186q42 0 58.5 10.5t38.5 56.5z" id="x32"></path></g>
</svg></span></td><td align="center"><span style="width: 29.525px;"><svg height="15.4" id="M381" style="vertical-align:-3.3907pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 29.525 15.4" width="29.525" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,11.112)"><path d="M998 650l-8 -28q-71 -4 -86 -16t-22 -69l-50 -397q-3 -28 -4.5 -44t2 -29t6.5 -18.5t17 -10.5t24.5 -6.5t37.5 -3.5l-8 -28h-271l7 28q63 6 78 22t25 90l60 415h-2l-353 -552h-23l-130 536h-2l-70 -254q-44 -158 -47 -188q-5 -38 9 -51t71 -18l-6 -28h-241l8 28
q45 4 67 18.5t35 45.5q16 38 74 233l52 173q24 79 11.5 98t-89.5 26l6 28h177l136 -508l337 508h172z" id="x1D440"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,17.412,15.187)"><path d="M412 140l28 -9q0 -2 -35 -131h-373v23q112 112 161 170q59 70 92 127t33 115q0 63 -31 98t-86 35q-75 0 -137 -93l-22 20l57 81q55 59 135 59q69 0 118.5 -46.5t49.5 -122.5q0 -62 -29.5 -114t-102.5 -130l-141 -149h186q42 0 58.5 10.5t38.5 56.5z" id="x32"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,23.124,15.187)"><path d="M241 635q53 0 94 -28.5t63.5 -76t33.5 -102.5t11 -116q0 -58 -11 -112.5t-34 -103.5t-63.5 -78.5t-94.5 -29.5t-95 28t-64.5 75t-34.5 102.5t-11 118.5q0 58 11.5 112.5t34.5 103t64.5 78t95.5 29.5zM238 602q-32 0 -55.5 -25t-35.5 -68t-17.5 -91t-5.5 -105
q0 -76 10 -138.5t37 -107.5t69 -45q32 0 55.5 25t35.5 68.5t17.5 91.5t5.5 105t-5.5 105.5t-18 92t-36 68t-56.5 24.5z" id="x30"></path></g>
</svg></span></td></tr><tr><td align="left"> </td><td align="center">Total</td><td align="center"><span style="width: 29.525px;"><svg height="15.4" id="M382" style="vertical-align:-3.3907pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 29.525 15.4" width="29.525" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,11.112)"><path d="M998 650l-8 -28q-71 -4 -86 -16t-22 -69l-50 -397q-3 -28 -4.5 -44t2 -29t6.5 -18.5t17 -10.5t24.5 -6.5t37.5 -3.5l-8 -28h-271l7 28q63 6 78 22t25 90l60 415h-2l-353 -552h-23l-130 536h-2l-70 -254q-44 -158 -47 -188q-5 -38 9 -51t71 -18l-6 -28h-241l8 28
q45 4 67 18.5t35 45.5q16 38 74 233l52 173q24 79 11.5 98t-89.5 26l6 28h177l136 -508l337 508h172z" id="x1D440"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,17.412,15.187)"><path d="M241 635q53 0 94 -28.5t63.5 -76t33.5 -102.5t11 -116q0 -58 -11 -112.5t-34 -103.5t-63.5 -78.5t-94.5 -29.5t-95 28t-64.5 75t-34.5 102.5t-11 118.5q0 58 11.5 112.5t34.5 103t64.5 78t95.5 29.5zM238 602q-32 0 -55.5 -25t-35.5 -68t-17.5 -91t-5.5 -105
q0 -76 10 -138.5t37 -107.5t69 -45q32 0 55.5 25t35.5 68.5t17.5 91.5t5.5 105t-5.5 105.5t-18 92t-36 68t-56.5 24.5z" id="x30"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,23.124,15.187)"><path d="M384 0h-275v27q67 5 81.5 18.5t14.5 68.5v385q0 38 -7.5 47.5t-40.5 10.5l-48 2v24q85 15 178 52v-521q0 -55 14.5 -68.5t82.5 -18.5v-27z" id="x31"></path></g>
</svg></span></td><td align="center"><span style="width: 29.525px;"><svg height="15.4" id="M383" style="vertical-align:-3.3907pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 29.525 15.4" width="29.525" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,11.112)"><path d="M998 650l-8 -28q-71 -4 -86 -16t-22 -69l-50 -397q-3 -28 -4.5 -44t2 -29t6.5 -18.5t17 -10.5t24.5 -6.5t37.5 -3.5l-8 -28h-271l7 28q63 6 78 22t25 90l60 415h-2l-353 -552h-23l-130 536h-2l-70 -254q-44 -158 -47 -188q-5 -38 9 -51t71 -18l-6 -28h-241l8 28
q45 4 67 18.5t35 45.5q16 38 74 233l52 173q24 79 11.5 98t-89.5 26l6 28h177l136 -508l337 508h172z" id="x1D440"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,17.412,15.187)"><path d="M241 635q53 0 94 -28.5t63.5 -76t33.5 -102.5t11 -116q0 -58 -11 -112.5t-34 -103.5t-63.5 -78.5t-94.5 -29.5t-95 28t-64.5 75t-34.5 102.5t-11 118.5q0 58 11.5 112.5t34.5 103t64.5 78t95.5 29.5zM238 602q-32 0 -55.5 -25t-35.5 -68t-17.5 -91t-5.5 -105
q0 -76 10 -138.5t37 -107.5t69 -45q32 0 55.5 25t35.5 68.5t17.5 91.5t5.5 105t-5.5 105.5t-18 92t-36 68t-56.5 24.5z" id="x30"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,23.124,15.187)"><path d="M412 140l28 -9q0 -2 -35 -131h-373v23q112 112 161 170q59 70 92 127t33 115q0 63 -31 98t-86 35q-75 0 -137 -93l-22 20l57 81q55 59 135 59q69 0 118.5 -46.5t49.5 -122.5q0 -62 -29.5 -114t-102.5 -130l-141 -149h186q42 0 58.5 10.5t38.5 56.5z" id="x32"></path></g>
</svg></span></td><td align="center"><span style="width: 17.475px;"><svg height="11.175" id="M384" style="vertical-align:-0.0pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 17.475 11.175" width="17.475" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,11.113)"><path d="M998 650l-8 -28q-71 -4 -86 -16t-22 -69l-50 -397q-3 -28 -4.5 -44t2 -29t6.5 -18.5t17 -10.5t24.5 -6.5t37.5 -3.5l-8 -28h-271l7 28q63 6 78 22t25 90l60 415h-2l-353 -552h-23l-130 536h-2l-70 -254q-44 -158 -47 -188q-5 -38 9 -51t71 -18l-6 -28h-241l8 28
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</svg></span></td></tr><tr class="table-tr"><td colspan="5"><hr class="tbody-hr"/></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

tab6

Table 6

Table 6: A Trend-Switching Financial Time Series Model with Level-Duration Dependence 