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Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Volume 2013, Article ID 471429, 14 pages
Review Article

Effect of Land Use and Climate Change on Runoff in the Dongjiang Basin of South China

1Center for Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
2Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong Higher Education Institutes, Guangzhou 510275, China

Received 15 February 2013; Revised 15 May 2013; Accepted 1 June 2013

Academic Editor: Yongping Li

Copyright © 2013 Yanhu He et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


Variability and availability of water resources under changing environment in a regional scale have been hot topics in recent years, due to the vulnerability of water resources associated with social and economic development. In this paper, four subbasins in the Dongjiang basin with a significant land use change were selected as case study. Runoffs of the four subbasins were simulated using the SCS monthly model to identify the quantitative impacts of land use and climate change. The results showed that (1), in the Dongjiang basin, temperature increased significantly, evaporation and sunlight decreased strongly, while precipitation showed a nonsignificant increase; (2) since the 1980s, land uses in the Dongjiang basin have experienced a significant change with a prominent increase in urban areas, a moderate increase in farmlands, and a great decrease in forest areas; (3) the SCS monthly model performed well in the four subbasins giving that the more significant land use change in each subbasin, the more runoff change correspondingly; (4) overall, runoff change was contributed half and half by climate change and human activities, respectively, in all the subbasins, in which about 20%~30% change was contributed by land use change.