First-Order ARMA Type Fuzzy Time Series Method Based on Fuzzy Logic Relation Tables

Table 5

The best results obtained for 30-observation test set of gold prices.

Date	Test set	Song and Chissom [1]	Chen [5]	Chen [6]	Huarng [11] distribution-based method	Huarng [11] average-based method	Huarng and Yu [13] rational-based method	Aladag et al. [8]	Proposed method*
17.11.2009	53935	53157	53300	53000.0	53200	53200	53356.4	53300	53400
18.11.2009	54550	53157	53900	53666.7	54000	53900	53894.0	53900	54200
19.11.2009	54495	53157	52400	54066.7	52400	51500	51715.7	54500	54200
20.11.2009	54830	53157	52400	54200.0	52400	51500	51715.7	53900	54200
23.11.2009	55950	53157	55100	54600.0	54800	54900	55017.3	54500	55000
24.11.2009	56285	52294	55700	55266.7	56000	55900	55779.2	55100	55800
25.11.2009	56430	52294	56300	56066.7	56400	56300	56164.1	55700	56600
01.12.2009	57635	52294	56300	56466.7	56400	56500	56551.6	55100	56600
02.12.2009	58330	53157	57500	57000.0	57600	57700	57730.3	55700	57400
03.12.2009	58150	53157	58100	57666.7	58400	58300	58529.8	56300	58200
04.12.2009	56630	53157	58100	58066.7	58000	58100	58128.7	56300	58200
07.12.2009	54820	53157	56900	57400.0	56800	56700	56551.6	55100	56600
08.12.2009	55660	53157	55100	56066.7	54800	54900	51715.7	55100	55000
09.12.2009	55110	52294	55700	55666.7	55600	55700	55779.2	55100	55800
10.12.2009	54180	52294	55100	55266.7	55200	55100	55017.3	54500	55000
11.12.2009	54580	53157	53900	54733.3	54000	54100	53157.9	53900	54200
14.12.2009	54190	53157	52400	54333.3	52400	51500	51715.7	54500	54200
15.12.2009	54120	53157	53900	54200.0	54000	54100	53157.9	53300	54200
16.12.2009	54855	53157	53900	54200.0	54000	54100	53157.9	53900	54200
17.12.2009	54430	53157	55100	54600.0	54800	54900	55017.3	54500	55000
18.12.2009	53750	53157	52400	54466.7	52400	51500	53157.9	54500	54200
21.12.2009	54570	53157	53900	53933.3	53200	53700	53894.0	53300	53400
22.12.2009	53400	53157	52400	53933.3	52400	51500	51715.7	54500	54200
23.12.2009	52990	53157	53300	53666.7	53200	53200	53356.4	53300	53400
24.12.2009	53575	52294	53150	53133.3	53200	53200	53524.7	52700	53400
25.12.2009	53450	53157	53300	53133.3	53200	53200	53356.4	53300	53400
28.12.2009	53795	53157	53300	53266.7	53200	53200	53356.4	53300	53400
29.12.2009	53515	53157	53900	53400.0	53200	53700	53894.0	53900	53400
30.12.2009	53095	53157	53300	53400.0	53200	53200	53356.4	52700	53400
31.12.2009	52920	52294	53300	53400.0	53600	53100	53524.7	53300	53400
	RMSE	2410.96	1031.12	857.34	1045.23	1288.80	1412.66	1003.50	707.71
	MAPE	0.03339	0.01512	0.01245	0.01530	0.01713	0.01935	0.01382	0.01028
	DA	0.55172	0.55172	0.51724	0.55172	0.62069	0.55172	0.48276	0.62069

∗The best result.