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Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Volume 2013, Article ID 917139, 7 pages
Research Article

Automated Flare Prediction Using Extreme Learning Machine

1School of Math & Statistics, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
2School of Information Science & Technology, East China Normal University, No. 500, Dongchuan Road, Shanghai 200241, China
3Department of Computer and Information Science, University of Macau, Avenue Padre Tomas Pereira, Taipa 1356, Macau

Received 23 September 2013; Accepted 16 October 2013

Academic Editor: Shuping He

Copyright © 2013 Yuqing Bian et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


Extreme learning machine (ELM) is a fast learning algorithm of single-hidden layer feedforward neural networks (SLFNs). Compared with the traditional neural networks, the ELM algorithm has the advantages of fast learning speed and good generalization. At the same time, an ordinal logistic regression (LR) is a statistical method which is conceptually simple and algorithmically fast. In this paper, in order to improve the real-time performance, a flare forecasting method is introduced which is the combination of the LR model and the ELM algorithm. The predictive variables are three photospheric magnetic parameters, that is, the total unsigned magnetic flux, length of the strong-gradient magnetic polarity inversion line, and total magnetic energy dissipation. The LR model is used to map these three magnetic parameters of each active region into four probabilities. Consequently, the ELM is used to map the four probabilities into a binary label which is the final output. The proposed model is used to predict the occurrence of flares with a certain level over 24 hours following the time when the magnetogram is recorded. The experimental results show that the cascade algorithm not only improves learning speed to realize timely prediction but also has higher accuracy of X-class flare prediction in comparison with other methods.