A Data-Driven Reliability Estimation Approach for Phased-Mission Systems

<table>The evolving mission reliability <svg height="17.6625" id="M334" style="vertical-align:-4.37273pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 152.325 17.6625" width="152.325" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,12.138)"><path d="M46 650h247q112 0 169 -41q64 -49 64 -141q0 -91 -56.5 -143t-138.5 -62q-23 -3 -45 -1l-74 19v-157q0 -63 15.5 -77t83.5 -19v-28h-271v28q60 5 74 20t14 77v400q0 65 -12.5 79t-69.5 18v28zM212 559v-245q31 -12 73 -12q59 0 102 38t43 124q0 77 -42.5 115.5
t-108.5 38.5q-44 0 -56 -12q-11 -8 -11 -47z" id="x50"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,9.48,12.138)"><path d="M181 342h2q63 107 121 107q24 0 41 -16t17 -34q0 -34 -32 -49q-17 -7 -26 2q-21 20 -43 20q-20 0 -42 -22t-38 -63v-183q0 -50 12.5 -62t69.5 -16v-26h-230v26q47 5 58 17t11 61v207q0 49 -9 60.5t-53 16.5v23q74 12 141 40v-109z" id="x72"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,15.786,12.138)"><path d="M300 -147l-18 -23q-106 71 -159 185.5t-53 254.5v1q0 139 53 252.5t159 186.5l18 -24q-74 -62 -115.5 -173.5t-41.5 -242.5q0 -130 41.5 -242.5t115.5 -174.5z" id="x28"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,21.668,12.138)"><path d="M649 676l-22 -187l-33 -2q3 56 -12 94q-8 20 -31.5 26.5t-86.5 6.5h-74l-90 -491q-4 -23 -6 -36.5t1 -25t7 -16.5t18 -9t27 -5t41 -3l-6 -28h-286l4 28q68 5 84 18.5t28 76.5l94 491h-55q-74 0 -100.5 -6t-41.5 -23q-24 -29 -54 -98l-32 1q32 98 53 188h22q7 -18 15 -22
t37 -4h417q23 0 33.5 5t25.5 21h23z" id="x1D447"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,32.988,16.212)"><path d="M530 686q-79 -330 -126 -595q-5 -24 4 -24q22 0 77 53l16 -24q-42 -49 -88 -78.5t-72 -29.5q-37 0 -19 83l21 99h-2q-62 -83 -153 -141q-65 -41 -97 -41q-28 0 -48 31.5t-20 91.5q0 71 32.5 144t88.5 118q36 30 94 52.5t94 22.5q38 0 68 -13l29 158q7 40 2 47.5t-38 7.5
h-35l1 26q39 4 76 13.5t58.5 17t27.5 7.5q16 0 9 -26zM387 375q-11 11 -38.5 20t-51.5 9q-45 0 -79 -23q-46 -32 -77.5 -107.5t-31.5 -143.5q0 -40 9.5 -58.5t23.5 -18.5q40 0 113.5 70t99.5 118z" id="x1D451"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,44.938,12.138)"><path d="M531 285l-474 -214v56l416 183l-416 184v56l474 -215v-50zM531 -40h-474v50h474v-50z" id="x2265"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,59.624,12.138)"><path d="M649 676l-22 -187l-33 -2q3 56 -12 94q-8 20 -31.5 26.5t-86.5 6.5h-74l-90 -491q-4 -23 -6 -36.5t1 -25t7 -16.5t18 -9t27 -5t41 -3l-6 -28h-286l4 28q68 5 84 18.5t28 76.5l94 491h-55q-74 0 -100.5 -6t-41.5 -23q-24 -29 -54 -98l-32 1q32 98 53 188h22q7 -18 15 -22
t37 -4h417q23 0 33.5 5t25.5 21h23z" id="x1D447"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,70.962,16.212)"><path d="M998 650l-8 -28q-71 -4 -86 -16t-22 -69l-50 -397q-3 -28 -4.5 -44t2 -29t6.5 -18.5t17 -10.5t24.5 -6.5t37.5 -3.5l-8 -28h-271l7 28q63 6 78 22t25 90l60 415h-2l-353 -552h-23l-130 536h-2l-70 -254q-44 -158 -47 -188q-5 -38 9 -51t71 -18l-6 -28h-241l8 28
q45 4 67 18.5t35 45.5q16 38 74 233l52 173q24 79 11.5 98t-89.5 26l6 28h177l136 -508l337 508h172z" id="x1D440"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,88.45,12.138)"><path d="M162 -163h-61v866h61v-866z" id="x2223"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,97.629,12.138)"><path d="M488 658v-28q-47 -3 -58.5 -12t-11.5 -39q49 -2 97 -15t93.5 -39.5t73.5 -75t28 -112.5q0 -53 -19.5 -96.5t-50 -71t-70 -47t-77.5 -27.5t-75 -9q0 -36 11.5 -45.5t58.5 -12.5v-28h-223v28q47 3 58.5 12.5t11.5 45.5q-47 1 -94.5 14t-93 39.5t-74.5 76t-29 114.5
q0 51 19 93.5t49 70t69.5 47t77.5 28t76 10.5q0 30 -11 39t-54 12v28h218zM335 118v429q-34 -2 -67 -13.5t-63.5 -35t-49.5 -65.5t-19 -96q0 -56 18.5 -99t49 -67.5t63.5 -37.5t68 -15zM418 547v-429q35 2 67.5 14t63.5 35.5t50 66.5t19 99t-19 99t-50 66.5t-64 35t-67 13.5
z" id="x3A6"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,111.712,16.212)"><path d="M244 607q0 -25 -15.5 -43t-37.5 -18q-19 0 -32 13t-13 35q0 21 15 41t39 20q20 0 32 -14t12 -34zM222 91q-29 -33 -79 -68t-75 -35q-13 0 -19 7.5t-6 31t10 65.5l62 253q5 26 -1 26q-21 0 -72 -43l-13 24q43 40 91 68t71 28q30 0 10 -78l-71 -274q-8 -30 3 -30
q16 0 76 48z" id="x1D456"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,114.961,16.212)"><path d="M95 130q31 0 61 -30t30 -78q0 -53 -38 -87.5t-93 -51.5l-11 29q77 31 77 85q0 26 -17.5 43t-44.5 24q-4 0 -8.5 6.5t-4.5 17.5q0 18 15 30t34 12z" id="x2C"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,117.674,16.212)"><path d="M495 86q-46 -47 -87 -72.5t-63 -25.5q-43 0 -16 107l49 210q7 34 8 50.5t-3 21t-13 4.5q-35 0 -109.5 -72.5t-115.5 -140.5q-21 -75 -38 -159q-50 -10 -76 -21l-6 8l84 340q8 35 -4 35q-17 0 -67 -46l-15 26q44 44 85.5 70.5t64.5 26.5q35 0 10 -103l-24 -98h2
q42 56 97 103.5t96 71.5q46 26 74 26q9 0 16 -2.5t14 -11.5t9.5 -24.5t-1 -44t-13.5 -68.5q-30 -117 -47 -200q-4 -19 -3.5 -25t6.5 -6q21 0 70 48z" id="x1D45B"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,124.262,12.138)"><path d="M95 130q31 0 61 -30t30 -78q0 -53 -38 -87.5t-93 -51.5l-11 29q77 31 77 85q0 26 -17.5 43t-44.5 24q-4 0 -8.5 6.5t-4.5 17.5q0 18 15 30t34 12z" id="x2C"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,130.96,12.138)"><path d="M667 650l-9 -28q-53 -5 -76 -17t-64 -59q-51 -61 -175 -225q-21 -29 -27 -55l-27 -136q-13 -65 -0.5 -80t83.5 -22l-7 -28h-280l8 28q64 4 81 19t30 83l25 128q6 35 -7 65l-98 231q-17 41 -32.5 52t-68.5 16l8 28h252l-6 -28l-40 -4q-27 -3 -33 -12.5t2 -31.5
q8 -26 43 -107.5t61 -134.5q114 145 174 240q14 24 8 33t-37 13l-34 4l8 28h238z" id="x1D44C"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,142.512,16.212)"><path d="M244 607q0 -25 -15.5 -43t-37.5 -18q-19 0 -32 13t-13 35q0 21 15 41t39 20q20 0 32 -14t12 -34zM222 91q-29 -33 -79 -68t-75 -35q-13 0 -19 7.5t-6 31t10 65.5l62 253q5 26 -1 26q-21 0 -72 -43l-13 24q43 40 91 68t71 28q30 0 10 -78l-71 -274q-8 -30 3 -30
q16 0 76 48z" id="x1D456"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,146.388,12.138)"><path d="M275 270q0 -296 -211 -440l-19 23q75 62 116.5 174t41.5 243t-42 243t-116 173l19 24q211 -144 211 -440z" id="x29"></path></g>
</svg> over <svg height="14.4125" id="M335" style="vertical-align:-3.2316pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 9.7875004 14.4125" width="9.7875004" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,10.125)"><path d="M324 430l-26 -36l-112 -4l-55 -265q-13 -66 7 -66q13 0 44.5 20t50.5 40l17 -24q-38 -40 -85.5 -73.5t-87.5 -33.5q-50 0 -21 138l55 262h-80l-2 8l25 34h66l25 99l78 63l10 -9l-37 -153h128z" id="x1D461"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,5.862,14.2)"><path d="M244 607q0 -25 -15.5 -43t-37.5 -18q-19 0 -32 13t-13 35q0 21 15 41t39 20q20 0 32 -14t12 -34zM222 91q-29 -33 -79 -68t-75 -35q-13 0 -19 7.5t-6 31t10 65.5l62 253q5 26 -1 26q-21 0 -72 -43l-13 24q43 40 91 68t71 28q30 0 10 -78l-71 -274q-8 -30 3 -30
q16 0 76 48z" id="x1D456"></path></g>
</svg> that the mission can be successfully accomplished before the system fails in Case 2.</table>

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

fig5

Figure 5

Figure 5: A Data-Driven Reliability Estimation Approach for Phased-Mission Systems 