Forecasting Dry Bulk Freight Index with Improved SVM

Table 1

Forecasting results of five prediction models.

	BDI	ARMA		VAR		Neural network (𝑛=8)		Neural network (𝑛=10)		SVM
		Predict value	Relative error	Predict value	Relative error	Predict value	Relative error	Predict value	Relative error	Predict value	Relative error
Jan. 12	1039.381	977.1347	0.059888	925.1847	0.109869	953.5296	0.082599	963.4226	0.07308	1029.505	0.009502
Feb. 12	702.619	639.3836	0.09	772.8565	0.099965	789.4652	0.123603	735.1234	0.046262	694.6194	0.011385
Mar. 12	855.381	941.0745	0.100182	812.9358	0.049621	877.5513	0.025919	876.2803	0.024433	870.5223	0.017701
Apr. 12	1032.905	980.6357	0.050604	959.705	0.070868	969.8216	0.061074	968.0003	0.062837	1090.248	0.055517
May 12	1109.762	1036.372	0.066132	1221.098	0.100325	1012.03	0.088066	1092.27	0.015762	1114.378	0.00416
June 12	947	1065.348	0.124972	1029.246	0.086849	1072.941	0.132989	1055.275	0.114335	925.786	0.022401
July 12	1064.048	948.7609	0.108347	950.0095	0.107174	1132.184	0.064036	1012.775	0.048186	1075.023	0.010315
Aug. 12	763.5714	735.4512	0.036827	843.5304	0.104717	875.5779	0.146688	822.0825	0.076628	770.095	0.008543
Sep. 12	710.381	829.6896	0.16795	682.384	0.039411	888.8169	0.251183	800.9311	0.127467	690.1364	0.028498
Oct. 12	944.619	1007.365	0.066424	1104.807	0.169579	1059.535	0.121653	1057.672	0.119681	921.4623	0.024514
Nov. 12	1021.714	960.0282	0.060375	1093.676	0.070432	959.9639	0.060438	1003.558	0.017771	1010.307	0.011165
Dec. 12	855.6875	817.9351	0.044119	799.9326	0.065158	811.3679	0.051794	818.812	0.043095	840.0157	0.018315