Multiscale Combined Model Based on Run-Length-Judgment Method and Its Application in Oil Price Forecasting

Table 3

Oil price forecasting in short-term: one year forecasting (Jan. 2012 to Dec. 2012).

	Multiscale combined model	ARIMA	Elman	SVM	GARCH	ARIMA-SVM	EMD-SVM-SVM
NMSE	0.5594	1.7079	0.8756	2.1201	2.0306	1.733	0.7999
MAPE	0.0506	0.0927	0.0728	0.1017	0.0999	0.0963	0.0579
DS (%)	75	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	50	75