Multiscale Combined Model Based on Run-Length-Judgment Method and Its Application in Oil Price Forecasting

Table 4

 Oil price forecasting in long-term: 23 months forecasting (Jan. 2012 to Nov. 2013).

	Multiscale combined model	ARIMA	Elman	SVM	GARCH	ARIMA-SVM	EMD-SVM-SVM
NMSE	1.0925	1.844	1.3895	1.6791	2.2636	2.1074	1.1434
MAPE	0.0548	0.0844	0.0697	0.0787	0.0946	0.0938	0.0653
DS (%)	65.22	60.9	65.22	65.22	60.87	52.17	58.33