Deterioration Prediction of Urban Bridges on Network Level Using Markov-Chain Model

Table 9

Final transition probabilities under natural decay.

Category	Element	Average value	Standard deviation	Final probability
Bride deck system	𝑝55	0.849	0.048	0.859
	𝑝44	0.650	0.042	0.665
	𝑝33	0.775	0.079	0.773
	𝑝22	0.851	0.090	0.880
Superstructure	𝑝55	0.936	0.032	0.946
	𝑝44	0.784	0.073	0.778
	𝑝33	0.797	0.135	0.787
	𝑝22	0.824	0.099	0.846
Substructure	𝑝55	0.939	0.023	0.943
	𝑝44	0.889	0.039	0.903
	𝑝33	0.900	0.120	0.952
	𝑝22	0.833	0.333	0.938
Whole bridge	𝑝55	0.907	0.043	0.921
	𝑝44	0.882	0.039	0.878
	𝑝33	0.897	0.070	0.918
	𝑝22	0.940	0.049	0.925