Electric Load Forecast Using Combined Models with HP Filter-SARIMA and ARMAX Optimized by Regression Analysis Algorithm

<table class="table-group" id="tab2"><tr><td><table class="table"><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="4"><hr/></td></tr><tr class="thead"><td align="left"> </td><td align="center"><span style="width: 13.3451ptpx;"><svg height="11.9283pt" id="M91" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -11.7219 13.3451 11.9283" width="13.3451pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M636 22C611 29 589 38 560 74C536 104 518 134 495 173L430 300C518 328 592 392 592 492C592 555 563 594 528 618C491 643 435 650 377 650H140L131 618C222 610 223 601 208 518L137 136C121 43 116 40 27 32L18 0H295L300 32C212 40 206 42 223 138L248 279H296C334 279 350 272 369 230C393 174 413 140 441 94C482 24 523 1 626 -8L636 22ZM497 480C497 422 468 374 417 343C387 324 353 315 304 315H255L298 556C303 583 309 598 319 603C331 610 348 613 367 613C448 613 497 573 497 480Z" id="g50-83"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="654" vert-adv-y="654"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,8.268,-5.872)"><path d="M414 144C384 79 371 75 317 75H135L276 221C367 316 408 376 408 465C408 570 327 635 237 635C179 635 131 609 100 575L42 494L67 471C94 510 138 565 205 565C277 565 321 517 321 435C321 348 258 270 195 195C146 137 88 81 33 26V0H411C423 44 433 88 446 135L414 144Z" id="g50-51"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g></svg></span></td><td align="center">AIC</td><td align="center">SBC</td></tr><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="4"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td align="left">ARIMA<svg height="11.4781pt" id="M92" style="vertical-align:-2.18977pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 47.1404 11.4781" width="47.1404pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M309 -142C211 -61 151 99 151 271S210 601 309 683L288 710C141 611 75 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transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,40.55,0)"><path d="M290 377C321 398 342 415 358 430C378 450 389 473 389 502C389 578 329 635 238 635H237C184 635 137 610 109 578L64 515L88 493C112 529 154 573 208 573S303 542 303 482C303 409 233 370 141 341L149 308C165 313 190 319 215 319C272 319 341 283 341 193C342 98 292 43 222 43C163 43 122 72 96 94C88 101 79 100 70 94C61 87 47 73 46 60C44 47 48 37 62 23C76 10 118 -12 165 -12C238 -12 430 62 430 223C430 297 379 359 290 375V377Z" id="g50-52"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g></svg>)(<svg height="13.9117pt" id="M93" style="vertical-align:-2.1898pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -11.7219 43.8256 13.9117" width="43.8256pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z" id="g50-50"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,6.331,0)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z" id="g50-45"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="237" vert-adv-y="237"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,11.617,0)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z" id="g50-50"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,17.948,0)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z" id="g50-45"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="237" vert-adv-y="237"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,23.234,0)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z" id="g50-50"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,29.566,0)"><path d="M283 271C283 451 220 610 70 710L48 683C146 603 207 443 207 271S149 -59 48 -142L70 -169C220 -67 283 90 283 271Z" id="g50-42"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="358" vert-adv-y="358"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,34.22,-5.872)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z" id="g50-50"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,38.651,-5.872)"><path d="M414 144C384 79 371 75 317 75H135L276 221C367 316 408 376 408 465C408 570 327 635 237 635C179 635 131 609 100 575L42 494L67 471C94 510 138 565 205 565C277 565 321 517 321 435C321 348 258 270 195 195C146 137 88 81 33 26V0H411C423 44 433 88 446 135L414 144Z" id="g50-51"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g></svg></td><td align="center">0.677</td><td align="center">12.991</td><td align="center">13.206</td></tr><tr><td align="left">ARIMA<svg height="11.4781pt" id="M94" style="vertical-align:-2.18977pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 40.7856 11.4781" width="40.7856pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M309 -142C211 -61 151 99 151 271S210 601 309 683L288 710C141 611 75 451 75 272V271C75 90 141 -72 288 -169L309 -142Z" id="g50-41"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="358" 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554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z" id="g50-50"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,17.948,0)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z" id="g50-45"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="237" vert-adv-y="237"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,23.234,0)"><path d="M245 635C92 635 37 457 37 312C37 149 91 -12 244 -12C395 -12 449 166 449 312C449 469 395 635 245 635ZM243 598C332 598 358 454 358 312C358 173 334 26 245 26C158 26 128 174 128 313S152 598 243 598Z" id="g50-49"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,29.566,0)"><path d="M283 271C283 451 220 610 70 710L48 683C146 603 207 443 207 271S149 -59 48 -142L70 -169C220 -67 283 90 283 271Z" id="g50-42"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="358" vert-adv-y="358"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,34.22,-5.872)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z" id="g50-50"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,38.651,-5.872)"><path d="M414 144C384 79 371 75 317 75H135L276 221C367 316 408 376 408 465C408 570 327 635 237 635C179 635 131 609 100 575L42 494L67 471C94 510 138 565 205 565C277 565 321 517 321 435C321 348 258 270 195 195C146 137 88 81 33 26V0H411C423 44 433 88 446 135L414 144Z" id="g50-51"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g></svg></td><td align="center">0.397</td><td align="center">13.460</td><td align="center">13.588</td></tr><tr class="table-tr"><td colspan="4"><hr class="tbody-hr"/></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

tab2

Table 2

Table 2: Electric Load Forecast Using Combined Models with HP Filter-SARIMA and ARMAX Optimized by Regression Analysis Algorithm 