Electric Load Forecast Using Combined Models with HP Filter-SARIMA and ARMAX Optimized by Regression Analysis Algorithm

Table 7

Predictions of five models.

Obs.	Actual load	Actual temperature	HP Filter-SARIMA-Revised ARMAX		SARIMA		ARIMA		Grey system		MLP neural network
			Forecast	Error (%)	Forecast	Error (%)	Forecast	Error (%)	Forecast	Error (%)	Forecast	Error (%)
16th Jul.	4585	35.0	4570	−0.3272%	4748	3.5551%	4287	−6.4995%	4587	0.0436%	4428	−3.4242%
17th Jul.	4733	39.4	4699	−0.7184%	4990	5.4300%	4210	−11.0501%	4457	−5.8314%	4558	−3.6974%
18th Jul.	4824	39.9	4799	−0.5182%	5158	6.9237%	4320	−10.4478%	4657	−3.4619%	4721	−2.1352%
19th Jul.	5012	41.9	4989	−0.4589%	5520	10.1357%	4580	−8.6193%	4851	−3.2123%	4518	−9.8563%
20th Jul.	4293	31.9	4308	0.3494%	4824	12.3690%	4127	−3.8668%	4427	3.1214%	4212	−1.8868%
21st Jul.	4470	39.0	4510	0.8949%	4750	6.2640%	4215	−5.7047%	4639	3.7808%	4498	0.6264%
22nd Jul.	4589	40.8	4588	−0.0218%	4650	1.3293%	4218	−8.0846%	4418	−3.7263%	4357	−5.0556%
23rd Jul.	4630	33.3	4599	−0.6695%	4598	−0.6911%	4324	−6.6091%	4417	−4.6004%	4500	−2.8078%
24th Jul.	4497	35.9	4485	−0.2668%	4325	−3.8248%	4129	−8.1832%	4213	−6.3153%	4367	−2.8908%
25th Jul.	4116	29.3	4120	0.0972%	3998	−2.8669%	3950	−4.0330%	3854	−6.3654%	4007	−2.6482%
26th Jul.	3835	26.4	3827	−0.2086%	3560	−7.1708%	3648	−4.8761%	3712	−3.2073%	3714	−3.1551%
27th Jul.	3726	27.1	3697	−0.7783%	3589	−3.6769%	3457	−7.2195%	3320	−10.8964%	3421	−8.1857%
28th Jul.	3797	33.3	3785	−0.3160%	3498	−7.8746%	3321	−12.5362%	3341	−12.0095%	3516	−7.4006%
29th Jul.	3845	35.5	3821	−0.6242%	3642	−5.2796%	3214	−16.4109%	3517	−8.5306%	3578	−6.9441%
30th Jul.	4144	35.8	4129	−0.3620%	3859	−6.8774%	3357	−18.9913%	3524	−14.9614%	3874	−6.5154%
31st Jul.	4061	36.0	4054	−0.1724%	3745	−7.7813%	3458	−14.8486%	3642	−10.3177%	3821	−5.9099%