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Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Volume 2015, Article ID 456485, 5 pages
Research Article

Stochastic Simulation on System Reliability and Component Probabilistic Importance of Road Network

1School of Civil Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
2SEU-Monash Joint Graduate School, Southeast University, Suzhou 215123, China

Received 29 September 2014; Revised 4 January 2015; Accepted 11 January 2015

Academic Editor: Wai Yuen Szeto

Copyright © 2015 Xiangyu Zhao et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


Because of the combination explosion problem, it is difficult to use probability analytical method to calculate the system reliability of large networks. The paper develops a stochastic simulation (Monte Carlo-based) method to study the system reliability and component probabilistic importance of the road network. The proposed method considers the characteristics of the practical road network as follows: both link (roadway segment) and node (intersection) components are emphasized in the road network; the reliability for a link or node component may be at the in-between state; namely, its reliability value is between 0 and 1. The method is then implemented using the object-oriented programming language C++ and integrated into a RARN-MGG (reliability analysis of road network using Monte Carlo, GIS, and grid) system. Finally, two numerical examples based on a simple road network and a large real road network, respectively, are carried out to characterize the feasibility and to demonstrate the strength of the stochastic simulation method.