Quantitative Risk Analysis of Offshore Fire and Explosion Based on the Analysis of Human and Organizational Factors

Table 2

Conditional probability and mutual information of basic event.

Basic event	Prior probability (%)	Posterior probability (%)	Mutual information
Release from joints of upstream pipeline	4.5	7.4	0.001226
Compressor completely failed	7	11.4	0.00186
Release from impeller	10	16.3	0.002763
Release from seal	12	19.5	0.003406
Release from compressor	5	8.13	0.001296
Release from upstream pipeline	0.3	0.49
Ignition due to explosion energy	36.9	75.5	0.04534
Ignition due to external heat	30.3	72	0.05432
Ignition due to electric spark	25.8	47.3	0.002085
Release from junction of pump	1	1.62	0.0002445
Release from rotor	6	9.73	0.001559
Pump failed to operate	15	24.3	0.004398
Release from casing	20	32.4	0.006315
Release from downstream pipeline	0.65	1.06
Leak from joints of downstream pipeline	9	14.7	0.002478