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Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Volume 2015 (2015), Article ID 562716, 15 pages
Research Article

Predicting Component Failures Using Latent Dirichlet Allocation

1Key Laboratory of Dependable Service Computing in Cyber Physical Society, Ministry of Education, Chongqing 400044, China
2School of Software Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing 401331, China

Received 10 January 2015; Revised 28 May 2015; Accepted 15 June 2015

Academic Editor: Mustapha Nourelfath

Copyright © 2015 Hailin Liu et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) is a statistical topic model that has been widely used to abstract semantic information from software source code. Failure refers to an observable error in the program behavior. This work investigates whether semantic information and failures recorded in the history can be used to predict component failures. We use LDA to abstract topics from source code and a new metric (topic failure density) is proposed by mapping failures to these topics. Exploring the basic information of topics from neighboring versions of a system, we obtain a similarity matrix. Multiply the Topic Failure Density (TFD) by the similarity matrix to get the TFD of the next version. The prediction results achieve an average 77.8% agreement with the real failures by considering the top 3 and last 3 components descending ordered by the number of failures. We use the Spearman coefficient to measure the statistical correlation between the actual and estimated failure rate. The validation results range from 0.5342 to 0.8337 which beats the similar method. It suggests that our predictor based on similarity of topics does a fine job of component failure prediction.