Research Article
Short-Term City Electric Load Forecasting with Considering Temperature Effects: An Improved ARIMAX Model
Table 11
Predictions of different models.
| Obs. | Actual power load data | Prediction value of improved ARIMAX | Prediction value of | Prediction value of | Prediction value of Sigmoid-Function ANN |
| 16 | 2685 | 2678 | 2648 | 2699 | 2698 | 17 | 2833 | 2820 | 2810 | 2855 | 2844 | 18 | 2924 | 2930 | 2917 | 2934 | 2934 | 19 | 3112 | 3122 | 3128 | 3130 | 3128 | 20 | 2393 | 2400 | 2428 | 2441 | 2412 | 21 | 2570 | 2600 | 2650 | 2661 | 2598 | 22 | 2689 | 2709 | 2723 | 2741 | 2699 | 23 | 2730 | 2788 | 2796 | 2801 | 2812 | 24 | 2597 | 2638 | 2654 | 2687 | 2611 | 25 | 2216 | 2219 | 2225 | 2258 | 2215 | 26 | 1935 | 1929 | 1971 | 1995 | 1952 | 27 | 1826 | 1822 | 1910 | 1984 | 1857 | 28 | 1897 | 1850 | 1927 | 1968 | 1904 | 29 | 1945 | 1926 | 2018 | 2100 | 1965 | 30 | 2244 | 2230 | 2101 | 2154 | 2264 | 31 | 2261 | 2258 | 2177 | 2137 | 2274 |
| AIC Criterion | ā72.7 | 381.4 | 433.8 | 78.6 | SBC Criterion | ā71.5 | 383.9 | 436.6 | 79.2 | MAE | 0.0037 | 0.0389 | 0.0494 | 0.0185 |
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