Short-Term City Electric Load Forecasting with Considering Temperature Effects: An Improved ARIMAX Model

Table 11

Predictions of different models.

Obs.	Actual power load data	Prediction value of improved ARIMAX	Prediction value of	Prediction value of	Prediction value of Sigmoid-Function ANN
16	2685	2678	2648	2699	2698
17	2833	2820	2810	2855	2844
18	2924	2930	2917	2934	2934
19	3112	3122	3128	3130	3128
20	2393	2400	2428	2441	2412
21	2570	2600	2650	2661	2598
22	2689	2709	2723	2741	2699
23	2730	2788	2796	2801	2812
24	2597	2638	2654	2687	2611
25	2216	2219	2225	2258	2215
26	1935	1929	1971	1995	1952
27	1826	1822	1910	1984	1857
28	1897	1850	1927	1968	1904
29	1945	1926	2018	2100	1965
30	2244	2230	2101	2154	2264
31	2261	2258	2177	2137	2274
AIC Criterion		−72.7	381.4	433.8	78.6
SBC Criterion		−71.5	383.9	436.6	79.2
MAE		0.0037	0.0389	0.0494	0.0185